Inflation, personal taxes, and real output: a dynamic analysis
Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities, and the business cycle
Macroeconomic and microeconomic data paint conflicting pictures of price behavior. Macroeconomic data suggest that inflation is inertial. Microeconomic data indicate that firms change prices frequently. We formulate and estimate a model which resolves this apparent micro - macro conflict. Our model is consistent with post-war U.S. evidence on inflation inertia even though firms re-optimize prices on average once every 1.5 quarters. The key feature of our model is that capital is firm-specific and predetermined within a period.
The case of the missing interest deductions: will tax reform increase U. S. saving rates?
A comparison of U.S. saving rates with those of 15 OECD countries, finding that saving is generally higher in countries that do not subsidize borrowing through interest deductibility.
U.S. Firms Foresee Intensifying Coronavirus Impact
In late March—even before many states had issued shelter-in-place, stay-at-home, or shutdown orders—we noted that firms were bracing for a huge negative impact on sales revenues from developments surrounding the coronavirus. Results from our March Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU)—a national survey of firms of varying sizes and industries—revealed that disruptions stemming from COVID-19 had led to sharp declines in expectations for year-ahead sales growth.
Is noninflationary growth an oxymoron?
A review of the theoretical and empirical case for disinflationary economic growth, showing that, contrary to popular wisdom, it is quite possible to have a booming economy without an acceleration in the price level.
The efficiency and welfare effects of tax reform: are fewer tax brackets better than more?
A comparison of a simple two-bracket income tax code with an approximation to traditional structures that entail steeply rising marginal tax rates, showing that the simpler rate structures are not necessarily more efficient than alternatives with many, highly progressive brackets.
The Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993: a summary report
A summary of the administration's final budget bill that was enacted in summer 1993, highlighting the changes in the scope and timing of deficit reductions and in the amount and distribution of revenue increases.
Growth and the internet: surfing to prosperity?
Do countries that inhibit the quick integration of new technologies pay a price in slower economic growth? This commentary suggests they do. Focusing on the level of Internet use to indicate the absorption rate of emerging computer technologies, the authors argue that faster technology absorption leads to increased economic growth.
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this ...
Why is stable money such a big deal?
What do attempts to counterfeit an enemy?s currency during wartime have in common with decisions to adopt another country?s currency during peacetime? Both are inspired by the power of a stable monetary standard and, conversely, the consequences of losing it. Both illustrate why preserving the value of the nation?s currency is a central bank?s most important responsibility.