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Author:Ahmed, Shaghil 

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1135

Working Paper
The welfare effects of distortionary taxation and government spending: some new results

Working Papers , Paper 90-9

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 92-2

Working Paper
The importance of the tax system in determining the marginal cost of funds

Working Papers , Paper 94-7

Working Paper
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter

Using a macroeconomic model, we explore how sources of shocks and vulnerabilities matter for the transmission of U.S. monetary changes to emerging market economies (EMEs). We utilize a calibrated two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions, partly-dollarized balance sheets, and imperfectly anchored inflation expectations. Contrary to other recent studies that also emphasize the sources of shocks, our approach allows the quantification of effects on real macroeconomic variables as well, in addition to financial spillovers. Moreover, we model the most relevant vulnerabilities ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1321

Working Paper
Money and output: the relative importance of real and nominal shocks

Working Papers , Paper 93-20

Working Paper
Are depreciations as contractionary as devaluations? A comparison of selected emerging and industrial economies

According to conventional models, flexible exchange rates play an equilibrating role in open economies, depreciating in response to adverse shocks, boosting net exports, and stimulating aggregate demand. However, critics argue that, at least in developing countries, devaluations are more contractionary and more inflationary than conventional theories would predict. Yet, it is not clear whether devaluations per se have led to adverse outcomes, or rather the disruptive abandonments of pegged exchange-rate regimes associated with devaluations. To explore this hypothesis, we estimate VAR models ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 737

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 94-5

Working Paper
Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?

We undertake tests of whether long term data from the U.S. and U.K. are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and the intertemporal external borrowing constraint being satisfied in expected value terms, both individually and simultaneously. An historical perspective is appropriate for focusing on whether the present value constraints (PVCs) continue to hold in the face of unusual events, such as the outbreak of wars, that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamic behavior of the variables. This provides a very strong test of whether intertemporal budget ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 494

Working Paper
Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies

Working Papers , Paper 92-22

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