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Author:Ahmed, Shaghil 

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 94-5

Working Paper
The welfare effects of distortionary taxation and government spending: some new results

Working Papers , Paper 90-9

Working Paper
The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?

This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. We provide both macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S. and Chinese demand on the output of the Asian economies by estimating growth comovements and VARs. The results suggest an increasing role of China as an independent source of growth. The microeconomic analysis decomposes trade into basic products, parts and components, and finished goods. We find a large role ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 904

Report
U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter

We explore how the sources of shocks driving interest rates, country vulnerabilities, and central bank communications affect the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy changes to emerging market economies (EMEs). We utilize a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and partly dollarized balance sheets, as well as poorly anchored inflation expectations reflecting imperfect monetary policy credibility in vulnerable EMEs. Contrary to other recent studies that also emphasize the sources of shocks, our approach allows the quantification of effects on real macroeconomic variables as ...
Staff Reports , Paper 972

Working Paper
Are depreciations as contractionary as devaluations? A comparison of selected emerging and industrial economies

According to conventional models, flexible exchange rates play an equilibrating role in open economies, depreciating in response to adverse shocks, boosting net exports, and stimulating aggregate demand. However, critics argue that, at least in developing countries, devaluations are more contractionary and more inflationary than conventional theories would predict. Yet, it is not clear whether devaluations per se have led to adverse outcomes, or rather the disruptive abandonments of pegged exchange-rate regimes associated with devaluations. To explore this hypothesis, we estimate VAR models ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 737

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 92-2

Working Paper
Inflation and the great ratios: long-term evidence from the U.S.

Using over 100 years of U.S. data, we find that the long-run effects of inflation on consumption, investment, and output are positive. Thus, models generating long-term negative effects of inflation on output and consumption (including endogenous growth and RBC models with money) seem to be at odds with data from the moderate inflation rate environment we consider. Also, great ratios like the consumption and investment rates are not independent of inflation, which we interpret in terms of the Fisher effect. However, in the full sample, the variability of the stochastic inflation trend is ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 628

Working Paper
Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies

Working Papers , Paper 92-22

Working Paper
The importance of the tax system in determining the marginal cost of funds

Working Papers , Paper 92-15

Discussion Paper
Should We Be Concerned Again About U.S. Current Account Sustainability?

In this note, we compare the present situation to that prevailing in the mid-2000s, when concerns about the NIIP and the current account were at the forefront, and we examine the prospects for U.S. external sustainability going forward.
IFDP Notes , Paper 2018-03-09

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