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Author:Ahmed, Shaghil 

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers , Paper RPA 17-2

Journal Article
Does money affect output?

Business Review , Issue Jul , Pages 13-28

Working Paper
Capital flows to emerging market economies: a brave new world?

We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies. These inflows are computed from quarterly balance-of-payments data from 2002:Q1 to 2012:Q2. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants of net private capital inflows. Second, there have been significant changes in the behavior of net inflows from the period before the recent global financial crisis to the post-crisis period, especially for portfolio inflows, ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1081

Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?

We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1135

Working Paper
Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?

We undertake tests of whether long term data from the U.S. and U.K. are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and the intertemporal external borrowing constraint being satisfied in expected value terms, both individually and simultaneously. An historical perspective is appropriate for focusing on whether the present value constraints (PVCs) continue to hold in the face of unusual events, such as the outbreak of wars, that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamic behavior of the variables. This provides a very strong test of whether intertemporal budget ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 494

Working Paper
Money and output: the relative importance of real and nominal shocks

Working Papers , Paper 93-20

Working Paper
The welfare effects of distortionary taxation and government spending: some new results

Working Papers , Paper 90-9

Working Paper
The importance of the tax system in determining the marginal cost of funds

Working Papers , Paper 92-15

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 92-2

Working Paper
The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending

Working Papers , Paper 94-5

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