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Decomposing real and nominal yield curves
We present an affine term structure model for the joint pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and Treasury yield curves that adjusts for TIPS? relative illiquidity. Our estimation using linear regressions is computationally very fast and can accommodate unspanned factors. The baseline specification with six principal components extracted from Treasury and TIPS yields, in combination with a liquidity factor, generates negligibly small pricing errors for both real and nominal yields. Model-implied expected inflation provides a better prediction of actual inflation than breakeven inflation. The value of the deflation floor calculated from the model is generally small in magnitude, but spiked during the recent crisis.
AUTHORS: Abrahams, Michael; Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel
Federal Reserve Liquidity Facilities Gross $22 Billion for U.S. Taxpayers
During the 2007-09 crisis, the Federal Reserve took many measures to mitigate disruptions in financial markets, including the introduction or expansion of liquidity facilities. Many studies have found that the Fed?s lending via the facilities helped stabilize financial markets. In addition, because the Fed?s loans were well collateralized and generally priced at a premium to the cost of funds, they had another, less widely noted benefit: they made money for U.S. taxpayers. In this post, I bring information together from various sources and time periods to show that the facilities generated $21.7billion in interest and fee income.
AUTHORS: Abrahams, Michael