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Author:Aaronson, Daniel 

Recent trends in job displacement

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Dec

Working Paper
The effects of progressive taxation on labor supply when hours and wages are jointly determined

This paper extends a standard intertemporal labor supply model to account for progressive taxation as well as the joint determination of hourly wages and hours worked. We show, qualitatively and quantitatively, that these two factors have important implications for estimating the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Furthermore, we show how to use this corrected parameter to interpret the labor supply response to a tax change. Failure to account for wage-hours ties within a progressive tax system leads to an hours response to a change in marginal tax rates that may be biased downwards by ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-22

Working Paper
Internal Immigrant Mobility in the Early 20th Century: Experimental Evidence from Galveston Immigrants

Between 1907 and 1914, the ?Galveston Movement,? a philanthropic effort spearheaded by Jacob Schiff, fostered the immigration of approximately 10,000 Russian Jews through the Port of Galveston, Texas. Upon arrival, households were given train tickets to pre-selected locations west of the Mississippi River where a job awaited. Despite the program?s stated purpose to locate new Russian Jewish immigrants to the Western part of the U.S., we find that almost 90 percent of the prime age male participants ultimately moved east of the Mississippi, typically to large Northeastern and Midwestern ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-4

The impact of baby boomer retirements on teacher labor markets

This article explores the future of teacher labor markets. The authors find that teacher hiring needs will rise over the coming decade largely because of retirements. However, this increase will not be significantly different from that of past decades.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Sep

Journal Article
Growth in worker quality

This article shows that increases in the educational attainment and labor market experience of the U.S. work force have led to an advance in labor productivity of more than 0.2 percentage points per year since the early 1960s. Estimates show, however, some declaration in the pace of labor quality improvements toward the end of the 1990s. Forecasts call for a continued decline over the remainder of the current decade.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 25 , Issue Q IV , Pages 53-74

How Much Did the Minimum Wage Drive Real Wage Growth During the Late 2010s?

For much of the recent expansion, real wage growth was surprisingly sluggish, by some measures never reaching its pace prior to the 2008 financial crisis, despite tight labor markets that drove the unemployment rate to 3.5%. However, on average, the lowest-earning workers fared substantially better, consistently experiencing real wage growth of 6% or more for much of the late 2010s, a pace well above the previous two decades.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 435

Working Paper
Supplier relationships and small business use of trade credit

This paper sheds some light on the empirical importance of supplier relationships, including ethnic ties, for the use of trade credit by minority-owned small businesses. Results based on the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finance (NSSBF) indicate that ethnic differences in the use of trade credit are present after conditioning on an extensive list of control variables. This holds especially for Black-owned businesses, and we find that they use less trade credit, are less likely to take advantage of discounts for early payment, and are more likely to have payments past due. We use ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-00-28

How much has house lock affected labor mobility and the unemployment rate?

This article explores new evidence from the U.S. Census Bureau?s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) on the extent to which ?house lock?--the reluctance of households to sell their homes in a declining house price environment--has contributed to the elevated unemployment rate since 2008.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Sep

Journal Article
The impact of technology on displacement and reemployment

This article explores whether job displacement is more prevalent in industries with higher technological innovation and whether older and less skilled employees are more prone to technology-induced job displacement. The authors also test whether the probability of reemployment is lower for older and less skilled workers in high-technology industries.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 23 , Issue Q II , Pages 14-30

Journal Article
How will baby boomer retirements affect teacher labor markets?

The authors estimate teacher demand and supply through 2020 to gauge the impact of baby boomer retirements on the demand for new teachers. They find that the projected demand will accelerate through at least 2020, and a good portion of this increase will be due to retirements. Still, this demand, once it has been adjusted for the size of the potential work force, will not be considerably different from that of the past five decades.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 33 , Issue Q IV



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