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Author:Aaronson, Daniel 

Working Paper
The effect of state fiscal reform on population heterogeneity

This paper tests whether state fiscal policy alters neighborhood income homogeneity. One implication of the Tiebout model is that within-community homogeneity declines as a result of an exogenous decrease in the ability of jurisdictions to set local tax and expenditure levels. The Property tax revolt and the school finance equalization reform of the 1970s and 1980s offer a test of the role of state fiscal reform on aggregate population sorting behavior. The results show that fiscal reform, especially tax and expenditure limitation laws and property tax reform, results in a small but ...
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper WP-96-29

Journal Article
Growth in worker quality

This article shows that increases in the educational attainment and labor market experience of the U.S. work force have led to an advance in labor productivity of more than 0.2 percentage points per year since the early 1960s. Estimates show, however, some declaration in the pace of labor quality improvements toward the end of the 1990s. Forecasts call for a continued decline over the remainder of the current decade.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 25 , Issue Q IV , Pages 53-74

Cross-state evidence on the relationship between unemployment and wage growth

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19: An Update

This blog post updates our earlier analysis of the potential jobs impacted by Covid-19. The update reflects three adjustments to the original analysis. First, we updated our guesses on the shares of each industry employed and working at still-operating businesses based on the Labor Department’s March Employment Situation report. Second, we use an updated model to estimate the possible June unemployment rates from initial unemployment insurance claims data (the model details are found here. Finally, we use unemployment rate predictions that incorporate the data from the April 2 report on ...
Chicago Fed Insights

Journal Article
Assessing the jobless recovery

This article reviews trends in employment growth during the recent recovery, including new evidence that much of the increase in self-employment since the beginning of the recession is likely a reflection of the weak labor market conditions of the last three years. The authors also offer thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of several explanations for the disappointing employment growth of the last few years.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 28 , Issue Q II

Regional growth in worker quality

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

How does a federal minimum wage hike affect aggregate household spending?

This article finds that a federal minimum wage hike would boost the real income and spending of minimum wage households. The impact could be sufficient to offset increasing consumer prices and declining real spending by most non-minimum-wage households and, therefore, lead to an increase in aggregate household spending. The authors calculate that a $1.75 hike in the hourly federal minimum wage could increase the level of real gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 0.3 percentage points in the near term, but with virtually no effect in the long term.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Recent trends in job displacement

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Dec

Working Paper
A note on the benefits of homeownership

This brief note adds to recent work that attempts to identify externalities associated with homeownership. The results suggest that some of the homeownership effect found in Green and White [5] is driven by family characteristics associated with homeownership, especially residential stability. However, as much as homeownership increases residential stability, it appears to be correlated with higher school attainment. Attempts to control for endogeneity cannot eliminate this finding. ; Originally issued as WP 98-20 (June 1999)
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-99-23

Working Paper
Teachers and student achievement in the Chicago public high schools

We match administrative data on Chicago public high school students and teachers at the classroom level to estimate the importance of teachers to mathematics test score gains. We show that sampling variation and other measurement issues are important drivers of nave estimates of teacher effects, in some cases accounting for the majority of dispersion in teacher quality. However, correcting for these problems, teachers are still economically and statistically influential. Replacing a teacher with another that is rated two standard deviations superior in quality can add 0.35 to 0.45 grade ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-28



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