Search Results
Journal Article
Demand-Supply Imbalance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Fiscal Policy
To mitigate the health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide engaged in massive fiscal support programs. We show that generous fiscal support is associated with an increase in the demand for consumption goods during the pandemic, but industrial production did not adjust quickly enough to meet the sharp increase in demand. This imbalance between supply and demand across countries contributed to high inflation. Our findings suggest a sizable role for fiscal policy in affecting price stability, above and beyond what a monetary authority can do.
Discussion Paper
Regional Trade Agreements with Global Value Chains
This FEDS Note looks at the effect of Regional Trade Agreements on trade between the agreement zone and the rest of the world. Global Value Chains are associated with an increase in outflow. Hence, RTAs can be a stumbling block for multilateralism.
Discussion Paper
Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective
The COVID-19 pandemic gave rise to unprecedented global economic conditions. Due to a mix of government-imposed restrictions and voluntary personal decisions, mobility levels collapsed in March 2020 and subsequently closely tracked the successive waves of the pandemic.
Working Paper
Forward Looking Exporters
This paper studies the role of expectations in driving export adjustment. We assemble bilateral data on spot exchange rates, one year ahead exchange rate forecasts and HS2-product export data for 11 exporting countries and 64 destinations, covering the 2006–2014 period. Results from fixed effects regressions and an instrumental variables approach show that expectations of exchange rate changes are an important channel for export adjustment. A one percent expected exchange rate depreciation over the next year is associated with a 0.96 percent increase in the extensive margin (entry of new ...
Discussion Paper
An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies
In a previous FEDS Note, de Soyres, Moore, and Ortiz (2023), we conducted a comparison of household excess savings across advanced and emerging economies over different historical episodes. In that analysis, we found that the stock of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic in the U.S. was exhausted by 2023Q1, while other advanced economies were not expected to deplete their excess reserve until late in 2023.