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Discussion Paper
Assessing China's Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance
de Soyres, Francois; Moore, Dylan (2024-02-02)
Since the beginning of 2018, the United States and China have been increasing tariff rates on each other's imports, spurring debates about a possible fragmentation of trade into blocs of aligned countries (Pierce and Yu (2023), Alfaro and Chor (2023)). Later that year, in a November 2018 speech to workers at a state-owned enterprise, President Xi Jinping mentioned that current events were forcing China to "travel the road of self-reliance."
FEDS Notes , Paper 2024-02-02

Discussion Paper
Increasing Business Cycles Synchronization: The Role of Global Value Chains, Market Power and Extensive Margin Adjustments
de Soyres, Francois; Gaillard, Alexandre (2019-12-13)
In this note, based on de Soyres and Gaillard (2019a, 2019b), we argue that the propagation of shocks across countries through trade linkages is large and propose the first model that accounts for such propagation with a magnitude in line with the data.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2019-12-13-3

China’s Role in Global Innovation Is Changing
de Soyres, Francois; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Hunt, Ethan (2025-08-14)
This blog post looks at China’s transition from technology absorber to innovation leader and exporter of technologies in sectors dominated by advanced economies.
On the Economy

Discussion Paper
Understanding Trade Fragmentation
Airaudo, Florencia; de Soyres, Francois; Fisgin, Ece; Gaillard, Alexandre; Santacreu, Ana Maria; Richards, Keith; Young, Henry L. (2025-12-12)
A large empirical literature, including Gopinath et al. (2025), finds that geopolitical distance has become an increasingly important determinant of bilateral trade flows. This work has fueled debate about the consequences of fragmentation and the extent to which global value chains are being reshaped.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2025-12-12

Discussion Paper
Regional Trade Agreements with Global Value Chains
de Soyres, Francois; Maire, Julien; Sublet, Guillaume (2021-02-04)
This FEDS Note looks at the effect of Regional Trade Agreements on trade between the agreement zone and the rest of the world. Global Value Chains are associated with an increase in outflow. Hence, RTAs can be a stumbling block for multilateralism.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-02-04

Working Paper
Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries
Gaillard, Alexandre; de Soyres, Francois (2019-11-22)
What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from 40 countries, we find that GDP comovement is significantly associated with trade in intermediate inputs but not with trade in final goods. Motivated by this new fact, we build a model of international trade that is able to replicate the empirical trade-comovement slope, offering the first quantitative solution for the Trade Comovement Puzzle. The model relies on (i) global value chains, (ii) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (iii) fluctuations in the mass of firms ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1266

Discussion Paper
The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom
de Soyres, Francois; Haag, Alex; Liu, Mike; Van Leemput, Eva (2026-02-13)
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key driver of the global economic outlook, underscored by the unprecedented scale of announced investment commitments aimed at expanding AI-related infrastructure. The AI boom is also increasingly influencing international trade by boosting demand for critical inputs and intermediate goods needed to build data centers.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2026-02-13-2

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