Search Results
Working Paper
Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks
In April 2020, the US government sent economic impact payments (EIPs) directly to households, as part of its measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic. We characterize these stimulus checks as a wealth shock for households and examine their effect on retail trading in Bitcoin. We find a significant increase in Bitcoin buy trades for the modal EIP amount of $1,200. The rise in Bitcoin trading is highest among individuals without families and at exchanges catering to nonprofessional investors. We estimate that the EIP program has a significant but modest effect on the US dollar–Bitcoin ...
Working Paper
Interest Rate Risk at US Credit Unions
Rising interest rates have prompted concerns about losses on bank assets, especially following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023. In this working paper, we examine whether US credit unions could be subject to similar losses as banks and analyze how their regulatory capital would be affected. We estimate that after realizing losses from assets that have decreased in value and not yet been sold the overall net worth of the credit union industry would have fallen by 40 percent in 2023:Q1. Unrealized losses were most severe at the largest credit unions. Nonetheless, the bulk ...
Journal Article
The Accounts of the Unbanked and Underbanked
We conducted focus groups with financially underserved Americans to learn more about how they manage their money. We spoke with 36 unbanked and underbanked individuals in Houston, Texas, and Cleveland, Ohio, about how they make and receive payments, the challenges they encounter in managing their finances, and how these experiences shape their views of financial service providers. While several participants described negative experiences with bank fees and concerns about security vulnerabilities, they acknowledged that alternative financial service providers were not always adequate ...
Working Paper
Tariffs, Stablecoins, and the Demand for Dollars
Several studies have shown that aggregate demand for US dollars fell following the announcement of tariffs by the US government on April 2, 2025. Using data on stablecoins as a proxy for dollar trading, we find that the decline in dollar demand is smaller for investors in countries that saw larger increases in tariffs. Our interpretation is that, as foreign investors anticipate that tariffs will make it more expensive to acquire US dollars in the future, they buy dollars today. This channel is stronger for more liquid stablecoins and for countries with tighter capital controls, consistent ...
Report
Does central clearing reduce counterparty risk in realistic financial networks?
Novating a single asset class to a central counterparty (CCP) in an over-the-counter derivatives trading network impacts both the mean and variance of total net exposures between counterparties. When a small number of dealers trade in a relatively large number of asset classes, central clearing increases the mean and variance of net exposures, which may lead to increased counterparty risk and higher margin needs. There are intermediate cases where there is a trade-off: The introduction of a CCP leads to an increase in expected net exposures but this increase is accompanied by a reduction in ...
Working Paper
The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into Money
The Lightning Network (LN) is a means of netting Bitcoin payments outside the blockchain. We find a significant association between LN adoption and reduced blockchain congestion, suggesting that the LN has helped improve the efficiency of Bitcoin as a means of payment. This improvement cannot be explained by other factors, such as changes in demand or the adoption of SegWit. We find mixed evidence on whether increased centralization in the Lightning Network has improved its efficiency. Our findings have implications for the future of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and their ...
Journal Article
Unbanked in America: A Review of the Literature
We review the recent literature on the causes and consequences of financial exclusion—that is, the lack of bank account ownership—in the United States. We examine existing work in a range of fields, including economics, finance, public policy, and sociology.
Working Paper
Beyond Banks: Trust Among the Financially Underserved
In 2023, over 18 percent of US households were either unbanked or underbanked, a group commonly referred to as financially underserved (e.g., see Burhouse, Navarro and Osaki (2016)). Prior work and survey evidence identify a lack of broad-scope trust in banks as an important reason for financial exclusion (e.g., FDIC (2024), Falcettoni and Nygaard (2025), and Xu (2020)). Yet it is not clear whether this mistrust is unique to banks or whether it extends to other institutions, such as government entities or nonbank providers of account services. This distinction matters for policymakers when ...
Journal Article
Why Worry about Financial Exclusion?
Should policymakers aim to expand access to bank accounts? When financial exclusion is due to frictions that prevent banking from operating efficiently, intervention may be justified. Applying simple economic principles, we highlight possible frictions that may give rise to inefficient exclusion in the United States, and we assess their importance using insights from data and the academic and policy literature.