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Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Paper
Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier
We estimate the local, spillover and aggregate causal effects of government transfers on personal income. We identify exogenous changes in federal transfers to residents at the state-level using legislated social security cost-of-living adjustments between 1952 and 1974. Each effect is measured as a multiplier: the change in personal income in response to a one unit change in transfers. The local multiplier, i.e., the effect of own-state transfers on own-state income holding fixed other state's income, at a four-quarter horizon is approximately 3.4. The cross-state spillover multiplier is ...
Working Paper
When Regional Isn’t Aggregate: Joint Estimation of Government Transfer Multipliers
We develop a framework that jointly identifies local and aggregate effects of government transfer shocks with cross-state spillovers. Using the Romer–Romer Social Security transfer-adjustment series and state personal income, we combine aggregate time-series variation with cross-sectional exposure to recover the local, spillover, and aggregate multipliers. The specification is aggregation-consistent: state coefficients sum to the aggregate response, making the decomposition of the national effect into local and spillover components transparent. The aggregate multiplier is positive and ...