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Working Paper
The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
Having efficient and accurate samplers for simulating the posterior distribution is crucial for Bayesian analysis. We develop a generic posterior simulator called the "dynamic striated Metropolis-Hastings (DSMH)" sampler. Grounded in the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, it draws its strengths from both the equi-energy sampler and the sequential Monte Carlo sampler by avoiding the weaknesses of the straight Metropolis-Hastings algorithm as well as those of importance sampling. In particular, the DSMH sampler possesses the capacity to cope with incredibly irregular distributions that are full ...
Journal Article
A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy
A policy action by the Federal Reserve consists of using any one of various instruments, such as the federal funds rate and different measures of money, to pursue its multiple objectives. Because of long and variable lags in the effects of policy actions, the process of anticipating the future is indispensable in formulating sound monetary policy. For the same reason, projecting policy effects accurately is a challenging task. An essential step is to develop good forecasting models. ; This article presents a forecasting model that seems to overcome conceptual and empirical difficulties ...
Working Paper
Identification, vector autoregression, and block recursion
In the applications of identified VAR models, finite-sample properties are not obvious to obtain when identifying restrictions are imposed on some lagged relationships. As a result, researchers have either left lagged relationships unrestricted even though some restrictions clearly make economic sense or failed to provide correct inference of the estimates. We extend the Bayesian methodology in the existing literature to these cases and develop the blockwise Monte Carlo methods. We show how to implement these methods to obtain the estimation and inference.
Working Paper
The S-curve: Understanding the Dynamics of Worldwide Financial Liberalization
Using a novel database of domestic financial reforms in 90 countries from 1973 to 2014, we document that global financial liberalization followed an S-curve path: reforms were slow and gradual in early periods, accelerated during the 1990s, and slowed down after 2000. We estimate a learning model that explains these dynamics. Policymakers updated their beliefs about the growth effects of financial reforms by learning from their own and other countries' experiences. Positive growth surprises in advanced economies helped accelerate belief updating worldwide, leading to the global wave of ...
Working Paper
Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models
The inference for hidden Markov chain models in which the structure is a multiple-equation macroeconomic model raises a number of difficulties that are not as likely to appear in smaller models. One is likely to want to allow for many states in the Markov chain without allowing the number of free parameters in the transition matrix to grow as the square of the number of states but also without losing a convenient form for the posterior distribution of the transition matrix. Calculation of marginal data densities for assessing model fit is often difficult in high-dimensional models and seems ...
Working Paper
Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, friction, or monetary policy?
We study the sources of the Great Moderation by estimating a variety of medium-scale DSGE models that incorporate regime switches in shock variances and in the inflation target. The best-fit model, the one with two regimes in shock variances, gives quantitatively different dynamics in comparison with the benchmark constant-parameter model. Our estimates show that three kinds of shocks accounted for most of the Great Moderation and business-cycle fluctuations: capital depreciation shocks, neutral technology shocks, and wage markup shocks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that ...
Working Paper
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
We take a structural approach to assessing the empirical importance of shocks to the supply of bank-intermediated credit in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations. First, we develop a theoretical model to show how credit supply shocks can be transmitted into disruptions in the production economy. Second, we use the unique micro-banking data to identify and support the model's key mechanism. Third, we find that the output effect of credit supply shocks is not only economically and statistically significant but also consistent with the vector autogression evidence. Our mode estimation indicates ...
Working Paper
Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model
This paper is about the properties of Markov-switching rational expectations (MSRE) models. We discuss possible solution concepts for MSRE models, distinguishing between stationary and bounded equilibria. For the case of models with one variable, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for uniqueness of a bounded equilibrium, and we relate this condition to an alternative, the generalized Taylor principle suggested by Davig and Leeper. We provide examples of models with multiple bounded and multiple stationary equilibria which suggest that it may be more difficult to rule out ...
Working Paper
Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors
The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time series behavior of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general framework in which alternative priors for the half-life of deviations from PPP can be examined. We show how to incorporate formally the prior views of economists about the half-life. In our empirical analysis we provide two examples of such priors. One example is a consensus prior consistent with widely held views among economists ...
Working Paper
Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates
Previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has produced exchange rate responses that are inconsistent with existing open economy macroeconomic theory. We argue that a careful identification of monetary policy in an explicit open economy setting is required. Using Canada as a case study, we specify and estimate a vector-autoregressive model that focuses on the identification of contemporaneous monetary policy, and we obtain tightly estimated results overall. The resulting dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock as well as to a ...