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Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis
The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.
Working Paper
Argentina’s unimpressive recovery: insights from a real business cycle approach
Argentina?s GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce-back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina?s mediocre long-run growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business-Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002-05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a ...
Journal Article
Exchange rates: fixed, pegged, or flex? Should we care?
Journal Article
The Mexican economy snaps back
Working Paper
Economic growth in Argentina in the period 1900-30: some evidence from stock returns
This paper reports the first stage of a project to recover Argentine stock market data for the entire 20th century. The authors find that real rates of return on Argentine stocks and bonds after 1920 were above those in the Belle poque, and that they were consistent with the view that in the postwar period Argentina remained firmly integrated with international financial markets.
Working Paper
Dollarization and monetary unions: implementation guidelines
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the main aspects of the implementation of a dollarization plan or of a monetary union, once the appropriate authorities have decided either course of action. Thus, the paper stays away from any normative issues. It is devoted to answering the question of how to dollarize or form a monetary union rather than the question of whether any given country should adopt any particular monetary regime.
Working Paper
Dollarization and monetary unions: implementation guidelines
Economic Research Working Paper 0105
Journal Article
Measuring the benefits of unilateral trade liberalization; part 2: dynamic models
This is the second of two articles examining the potential welfare gains or losses from a unilateral move toward free trade. Part 1 concluded that applied static models of international trade fail to produce eye-popping positive welfare effects. In Part 2, Carlos Zarazaga reviews available applied dynamic general equilibrium models. He finds that the promises of larger welfare gains from unilateral trade liberalization do materialize in some dynamic models. However, other models cannot completely dismiss some common objections to the adoption of unilateral free trade policies. Zarazaga ...
Working Paper
Argentina's capital gap puzzle
Argentinas GDP per working age person in 2003 was about the same as it was twenty years earlier and around fifteen percent below trend. By international standards that has been a dismal performance whose ultimate sources are important to uncover to eventually reverse that countrys seemingly secular decline. The purpose of this paper is precisely to take a first step towards that understanding. To that effect, we examine Argentinas recent growth experience, which includes two deep recessions and a recovery, with the lens of a neoclassical growth model that takes total factor productivity as ...
Journal Article
Economic rebounds in U.S. and euro zone: deceivingly similar, strikingly different
The global downturn following Lehman Brothers? failure in September 2008 has become known as the Great Recession for good reason: It was the most severe global economic contraction since the Great Depression. As the dust settles, patterns among key macroeconomic variables have emerged. Identifying them may make it possible to understand the nature of the downturn and, thus, determine which policies might best address its fallout.