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Journal Article
The FOMC in 1997: a real conundrum
Although the economic performance of the U.S. economy in 1997 was very good, it was troubling in at least one respect for the Federal Open Market Committee. Traditional signals of inflation - rapid money growth and high levels of economic activity - were not accompanied by higher inflation. Rather, inflation fell steadily throughout the year. The committee put forth several hypotheses for the subdued inflation but found the situation puzzling, nevertheless. Compounding the problem, members did not know how long such dampening factors might last. In the end the FOMC changed the intended ...
Journal Article
Capacity utilization and prices within industries
Journal Article
Boom or bust? the economic effects of the baby boom
Journal Article
The long and short (runs) of investing in equities
Journal Article
Saving accounts: what are they worth?
Journal Article
The tax man cometh: consumer spending and tax payments
Journal Article
Still charging: the growth of credit card debt between 1992 and 1995
Between 1991 and 1997, consumer revolving credit outstanding more than doubled - from $247 billion to $514 billion. This rapid rise of consumer debt, especially credit card debt, has generated much discussion about its cause, sustainability, and implications. Peter S. Yoo uses the recently released 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances to update a previous study that separated the growth of credit card debt into its two main components: increases in the number of households with credit cards and increases in average credit card balances. As before, the analysis separates the effects of lower- and ...
Working Paper
The baby boom and economic growth
This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of capital accumulation and economic growth as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary decline of the capital-labor ratio. The temporary drop of the capital-labor ratio requires a decrease in consumption per capita but as the baby boom generation nears retirement, capital intensity increases, which raises output per worker and per capita consumption. Furthermore, and perhaps counter intuitively, the model predicts that the saving ...
Journal Article
Nominal vs. real wage growth?
Journal Article
A CPI-based bias for GDP?