Search Results
Journal Article
Is increasing wealth a substitute for saving?
Journal Article
Capacity utilization and prices within industries
Journal Article
Boom or bust? the economic effects of the baby boom
Working Paper
Population growth and asset prices
This paper explores the theoretical relationship between the population growth rate and asset prices implied by an overlapping-generations model. The model shows that changes in a population's age distribution affect asset prices but such changes generate low frequency movements in asset prices. The model also shows that the treatment of expectations matter; a small response of individuals to changes in asset prices has large implications for the path of asset prices. Finally, the model shows that incorporating a supply of assets by interpreting an asset as a claim on physical capital ...
Working Paper
Charging up a mountain of debt: households and their credit cards.
I use the Surveys of Consumer Finances conducted in 1983, 1989 and 1992 to separate the growth of credit card debt into two categories, changes in the number of households with credit cards and changes in households credit card debt. I can then account for the relative contributions of increases in credit card availability, number of households, and average credit card debt. I also use the household income information to quantify the impact of more lower income households with credit cards. Data suggest that the increases in credit card debt is largely attributable to increased average credit ...
Working Paper
The baby boom and international capital flows
This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of international capital flows as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary increase in capital flow into the U.S. but the increase in capital is not sufficient to maintain the capital-labor ratio in the U.S. The baby boom increases saving in the U.S. but decreases the saving abroad due to the higher world interest rates.
Working Paper
The baby boom and economic growth
This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of capital accumulation and economic growth as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary decline of the capital-labor ratio. The temporary drop of the capital-labor ratio requires a decrease in consumption per capita but as the baby boom generation nears retirement, capital intensity increases, which raises output per worker and per capita consumption. Furthermore, and perhaps counter intuitively, the model predicts that the saving ...
Working Paper
Age distributions and returns of financial assets
This paper explores the relationship between age distribution and asset returns impled by an overlapping-generations asset pricing model. The model predicts that as more individuals reach the age when the increment to their wealth reaches its maximum, asset returns fall. Cross-sectional evidence from the Survey of Financial Characteristics of Consumers and the Surveys of Consumer Finances indicates that individuals aged 45 to 54 have the largest increment to wealth of all age group. Time series estimates confirm that a close link exists between aggregate household wealth and the size of this ...
Working Paper
Age dependent portfolio selection
This paper addresses the issue of portfolio risk exposure as a function of age, and it focuses the debate by presenting detailed cross-sectional evidence about individual portfolios. It provides new empirical results that characterized the relationship between age and the risk exposure of individual portfolios. The evidence from cross-sectional data suggests that individuals do not follow behavior proscribed by economic theory or by Wall Street advisors, rather the results of this paper suggest that current body of theoretical literature does not adequately describe the behavior of ...
Journal Article
Nominal vs. real wage growth?