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Working Paper
Economies of integration in banking: an application of the survivor principle
Despite the growing concentration of U.S. banking assets in mega-banks, most academic research finds that scale and scope economies are small. I apply the survivor principle to the banking industry between 1984 and 2002 and find that the so-called economies of integration are significant. These results hold after accounting for off-balance- sheet activities and after replicating the results at the holding company level. Regression analysis reveals that deregulation of branching restrictions, especially at the state level, played a significant role in allowing banks to exploit these economies. ...
Working Paper
Community bank performance in the presence of county economic shocks
A potentially troubling characteristic of the U.S. banking industry is the geographic concentration of many community banks* offices and operations. If geographic concentration of operations exposes banks to local market risk, we should observe a widespread decline in their financial performance following adverse economic shocks. By analyzing the performance of a sample of geographically concentrated U.S. community banks exposed to severe unemployment shocks in the 1990s, we find that banks are not particularly sensitive to local economic deterioration. Indeed, performance at banks in ...
Journal Article
Are small rural banks vulnerable to local economic downturns?
A potentially troubling characteristic of the U.S. banking industry is the geographic concentration of many banks? offices and operations. Historically, banking laws have prevented U.S. banks from branching into other counties and states. A potential adverse consequence of these regulations was to leave banks?especially small rural banks?vulnerable to local economic downturns. If geographic concentration of bank offices leaves banks vulnerable to local economic downturns, we should observe a significant correlation between bank performance and the local economy. Looking at Eighth District ...
Journal Article
Community ties: does \\"relationship lending\\" protect small banks when the local economy stumbles?
The cover story examines why small banks aren't usually thrown for a loop when the local economy has a rough ride
Working Paper
Scale economies and geographic diversification as forces driving community bank mergers
Mergers of community banks across economic market areas potentially reduce both idiosyncratic and local market risk. Idiosyncratic risk may be reduced because the larger post merger bank has a larger customer base. Negative credit and liquidity shocks from individual customers would have smaller effects on the portfolio of the merged entity than on the individual community banks involved in the merger. Geographic dispersion of banking activities across economic market areas may reduce local market risk because an adverse economic development that is unique to one market area will not affect a ...
Journal Article
What does the Federal Reserve's economic value model tell us about interest rate risk at U.S. community banks?
The savings and loan crisis of the 1980s revealed the vulnerability of some depository institutions to changes in interest rates. Since that episode, U.S. bank supervisors have placed more emphasis on monitoring the interest rate risk of commercial banks. Economists at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System developed a duration-based economic value model (EVM) designed to estimate the interest rate sensitivity of banks. The authors test whether measures derived from the Fed?s EVM are correlated with the interest rate sensitivity of U.S. community banks. The answer to this ...
Journal Article
An imperfect crystal ball
The futures market is not a perfect crystal ball. In some cases, it accurately forecasts what spot prices will be in the future. But not always.
Working Paper
Should the FDIC worry about the FHLB? the impact of Federal Home Loan Bank advances on the Bank Insurance Fund
Does growing commercial-bank reliance on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLBank) advances increase expected losses to the Bank Insurance Fund (BIF)? Our approach to this question begins by modeling the link between advances and expected losses. We then quantify the effect of advances on default probability with a CAMELS-downgrade model. Finally, we assess the impact on loss-given-default by estimating resolution costs in two scenarios: the liquidation of all banks with failure probabilities above two percent and the liquidation of all banks with advance-to-asset ratios above 15 percent. The evidence ...
Journal Article
The housing giants in plain view
These government-sponsored enterprises continue to make headlines because of their explosive growth and resulting heavyweight status within the nation's financial system.