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Individuals, married couples respond differently to U.S. income tax changes
Changes in effective income taxes can impact labor supply with different outcomes for married couples and singles, and changes can have a particularly notable impact on married women.
Working Paper
Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe
We document large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities. Using a life-cycle model with home production and endogenous retirement, we find that the cross-country differences in consumption tax, social security system, income tax and TFP together can account for 68-95 percent of the cross-country variations and more than half of the average differences between Europe and the United States in aggregate hours and expenditures. These factors can also account well for the cross-country differences in allocations ...
Working Paper
Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth
We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in ac- counting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid-1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of employment, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increasing share of capital devoted ...
State and local governments rake in surpluses after pandemic
The existence of large sums in state and local government coffers runs counter to historic post-recession trends. State and local governments usually grapple with budget shortfalls due to rising social program demands and weak revenue streams following recessions.
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Piketty’s Book and Macro Models of Wealth Inequality
Thomas Piketty?s book Capital in the Twenty-First Century is, in the author?s own words, a book about the history of the distribution of income and wealth. Among other interesting and important facts, the book quantifies the evolution of wealth inequality and wealth concentration over time and across a number of countries. Wealth is highly concentrated, and its distribution is skewed with a long right tail; a small number of very rich individuals hold a large share of total wealth in the economy.
Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that ...
Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies, and Chinese Economic Growth
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine the demographic transition and industrial policies in contributing to China’s economic growth between 1976 and 2015. We find that the demographic transition and industrial policy changes by themselves account for a large fraction of the rise in household and corporate savings relative to total output and the rise in the country’s per capita output growth. Importantly, their interactions also lead to a sizable fraction of the increases in savings since the late 1980s and reduce growth after 2010. A novel and important factor that ...
Working Paper
Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men
Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage. Two potential explanations for this increase are: (i) men hit by positive labor market shocks are more likely to marry; and (ii) the prospect of marriage increases men’s labor supply. We quantify the relative importance of these two channels using a structural life-cycle model of marriage and labor supply. Our calibration implies that marriage substantially ...
Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
We build a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades. On the demographic side, we consider evolutions in government population-control policies, life expectancy and pension income replacement. Industrial policies include changes in the speed of the growth of entrepreneurship, industry-specific interest subsidies and financial intermediation costs. Our analyses suggest that the demographic transition alone barely affects the aggregate savings rate, mainly due to general ...
Working Paper
Marriage and Work among Prime-Age Men
Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage. Two potential explanations for this increase are: (i) men hit by positive labor market shocks are more likely to marry; and (ii) the prospect of marriage increases men's labor supply. We quantify the relative importance of these two channels using a structural life-cycle model of marriage and labor supply. Our calibration implies that marriage substantially ...