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GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years
The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.
Report
The Texas Energy Industry: From Boom to Gloom
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale formations have transformed Texas? oil and gas sector.
Journal Article
Plunging oil prices: a boost for the U.S. economy, a jolt for Texas
Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.
Journal Article
Texas Job Growth Swings More with Services than Oil
As the Texas economy diversified after the 1980s oil bust, the link between overall economic growth and the oil and gas sector weakened. The sector?s connectedness with the state economy increased again with the shale boom. However, service sector employment, especially in financial activities and professional business services, became increasingly prominent following the Great Recession.
Journal Article
Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals
Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.
Journal Article
Did speculation drive oil prices? market fundamentals suggest otherwise
Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look at evidence from the physical market for oil and conclude that fundamentals, and not speculation, were behind the dramatic rise and fall in oil prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the futures market.
Journal Article
Renewable fuel standards hit the 'blend wall'
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 mandated that a minimum amount of biofuel be blended into transportation fuels. But nine years after the law was passed, the energy landscape has changed.
Journal Article
The Texas construction sector: the tail that wagged the dog
The boom-to-bust days of the Texas construction industry will linger in people's memory for many years. D'Ann Petersen, Keith Phillips, and Mine Yucel examine the factors that led to the rise and fall of the Texas construction industry and determine the role the industry played in the state's volatile economy during the 1970s and 1980s. ; Petersen, Phillips, and Yucel employ an econometric model to analyze the roles residential and nonresidential construction played in the state's economic fluctuations from 1976 through 1990. The authors find that, although large swings in oil prices were the ...
Journal Article
Energy prices and state economic performance
Changes in energy prices have had sizable but differing effects on economic activity across the United States. The composition of each state's economy largely determines how its employment responds to changes in energy prices. In this article, Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel use simulations based on input-output analysis to assess the long-term consequences of changing oil prices on employment in each state in 1982, 1992, and 2000. Brown and Yucel find that because state economies are becoming more similar in their composition, the variation across states in the response to changing oil prices ...
Journal Article
The interest rate sensitivity of Texas industry
A key factor in forecasting a region's growth is anticipating how a region will respond to changes in national policy. One important way national policy affects a region is through real interest rates. Forecasting regional growth, therefore, requires good estimates of the interest rate sensitivity of regional industries. In this study, Lori Taylor and Mine Yucel use vector autoregression analysis to examine the relationship between changes in real short-term interest rates and changes in Texas industry employment. They find that while a few industries are moderately sensitive to interest rate ...