Search Results
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, ...
Journal Article
Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New analysis linking immigration data with employment data for specific areas suggests that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment roughly one-for-one. Extending the analysis to the industry level further suggests that the slowdown of net immigration had a large negative impact on local employment, particularly for construction and manufacturing.
Journal Article
The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth
The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.
Journal Article
Recent trends in economic volatility: conference summary
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on ?Recent Trends in Economic Volatility? held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco by the Bank?s Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity on November 2 and 3, 2007. The papers are listed at the end and are available online. http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0711/
Journal Article
Do differences in countries' capital composition matter?
This Economic Letter explores three questions that arise in light of striking differences in the composition of capital equipment among countries.
Journal Article
Are fiscal stimulus funds going to the "right" states?
Are federal stimulus funds heading to those states best positioned to put the money to good use right away? This Letter compares the degree of economic need in different states with each state's expected share of funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
Journal Article
Are we running out of new ideas? a look at patents and R&D
Journal Article
What's in the News? A New Economic Indicator
Newspaper articles and editorials about the economy do more than just report on official data releases. They also often convey how the journalist and those interviewed feel about the economy. Researchers have recently developed ways to extract data on sentiment from news articles using text analysis and machine learning techniques. These measures of news sentiment track current economic conditions quite well. In fact, they often do a better job than standard consumer sentiment surveys at forecasting future economic conditions.