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Report
The economics of labor adjustment: mind the gap
We study inferences about the dynamics of labor adjustment obtained by the "gap methodology" of Caballero and Engel [1993] and Caballero, Engel and Haltiwanger [1997]. In that approach, the policy function for employment growth is assumed to depend on an unobservable gap between the target and current levels of employment. Using time series observations, these studies reject the partial adjustment model and find that aggregate employment dynamics depend on the cross-sectional distribution of employment gaps. Thus, nonlinear adjustment at the plant level appears to have aggregate ...
Journal Article
Opportunity knocks: improved matching of jobs and workers
Tzemen and Willis illustrate that over the past year, workers found jobs more closely matched to their educational attainment.
Working Paper
Mind the (approximation) gap: a robustness analysis
This note continues the discussion of the results reported by Ricardo Caballero and Eduardo Engel (1993), hereafter CE, and Ricardo Caballero, Eduardo Engel, and John Haltiwanger (1997), hereafter CEH, by responding to the results reported in Christian Bayer (2008). Russell Cooper and Jonathan Willis (2004), hereafter CW, find that the aggregate nonlinearities reported in CE and CEH may be the consequence of mismeasurement of the employment gap rather than nonlinearities in plant-level adjustment. Bayer reassesses this finding in the context of the CE model in the case where static employment ...
Working Paper
Magazine prices revisited
This paper examines price adjustment behavior in the magazine industry. In a frequently cited study, Cecchetti (1986) constructs a reduced-form (S,s) model for firms. Cecchetti assumes that a firm's pricing rules are fixed for non-overlapping three-year intervals and estimates the model using a conditional logit specification from Chamberlain (1980). The estimates are inconsistent, however, due to the state-dependent specification of the model. I illustrate the econometric problems in Cecchetti's results through a Monte Carlo exercise and then suggest a method for producing consistent ...
Journal Article
What happened to the gains from strong productivity growth?
Over the past decade, the United States economy has experienced strong economic growth due in large part to a resurgence in productivity growth. Little attention has been paid, however, to examining how the gains from this growth have been distributed. In the past few years, observers have noted that the share of income paid to labor has been falling while corporate profits have surged. Also, observers have pointed out that income inequality appears to have widened, with little increase in real wages for low-income workers while executive pay has skyrocketed. Consequently, there has been a ...
Working Paper
Euler-equation estimation for discrete choice models: a capital accumulation application
This paper studies capital adjustment at the establishment level. Our goal is to characterize capital adjustment costs, which are important for understanding both the dynamics of aggregate investment and the impact of various policies on capital accumulation. Our estimation strategy searches for parameters that minimize ex post errors in an Euler equation. This strategy is quite common in models for which adjustment occurs in each period. Here, we extend that logic to the estimation of parameters of dynamic optimization problems in which non-convexities lead to extended periods of investment ...
Working Paper
Estimation of adjustment costs in a model of state-dependent pricing
This paper provides a framework for direct analysis of the underlying price adjustment costs in an industry. A dynamic programming problem is specified for monopolistically competitive firms that face idiosyncratic costs of price adjustment. A numerical solution is calculated using value function iteration. I estimate the structural parameters of the model using data on magazine cover prices. Among the parameters estimated are the mean, variance, and persistence of the adjustment cost process. The estimated distribution of adjustment costs is nondegenerate, and the average adjustment cost ...
Working Paper
New exporter dynamics
Models in which heterogeneous plants face sunk export entry costs are standard tools in the international trade literature. How well do these models account for the observed dynamics of new exporters? We document that new exporters initially export small amounts and ? conditional on continuing in the export market ? grow gradually over several years. New exporters are most likely to exit the export market in their first few years. We construct a dynamic discrete choice model of exporting and find that the standard model cannot replicate the behavior of new exporters: New exporters grow too ...
Working Paper
Sticky information and sticky prices
In the U.S. and Europe, prices change somewhere between every six months and once a year. Yet nominal macro shocks seem to have real effects lasting well beyond a year. "Sticky information" models, as posited by Sims (2003), Woodford (2003), and Mankiw and Reis (2002), can reconcile micro flexibility with macro rigidity. We simulate a sticky information model in which price setters do not update their information on macro shocks as often as they update their information on micro shocks. Compared to a standard menu cost model, price changes in this model reflect older macro shocks. We then ...
Journal Article
Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?
Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao investigate shifts in the economy?s sensitivity to interest rates by examining how total employment responds to changes in monetary policy.