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Working Paper
Investment, capacity, and uncertainty: a putty-clay approach
Gilchrist, Simon; Williams, John C. (2002)
In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. We show that the combination of log-normally distributed idiosyncratic productivity uncertainty and Leontief utilization choice yields an aggregate production function that is easily characterized in terms of hazard rates for the standard normal distribution. At low levels of idiosyncratic uncertainty, the short-run elasticity of supply is substantially lower than the elasticity of supply ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2002-03

Speech
Monetary policy and the slow recovery: It’s not just about housing
Williams, John C. (2012)
Presentation to the SPUR Business Breakfast Series, San Francisco, CA, April 4, 2012. ; President Williams presented similar remarks to the University of San Diego School of Business Administration in San Diego, California, on April 3, 2012.
Speech , Paper 102

Journal Article
The view from here: outlook and monetary policy
Williams, John C. (2015)
The U.S. economy is likely to reach the Federal Reserve?s maximum employment goal later this year. Although inflation has remained persistently low, it is expected to return to the Fed?s 2% target over the next few years. Due to the lags between monetary policy?s implementation and its effects, the time is coming to take the first step toward normalizing monetary policy by raising short-term interest rates. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the CFA Society Hawaii on March 5, 2015.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Simple rules for monetary policy
Williams, John C. (1999)
What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale open-economy macroeconometric model. Simple three-parameter policy rules are found to be very effective at minimizing fluctuations in inflation, output, and interest rates: Increases in rule complexity yield only trivial reductions in aggregate variability. Under rational expectations, efficient policies smooth the interest rate response to shocks and use the feedback from anticipated policy actions to stabilize inflation and output and to moderate ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-12

Speech
Discussion of "Monetary Policy Transmission to Real Activity"
Williams, John C. (2025-03-07)
Remarks at the 2025 US Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.
Speech

Speech
Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?
Williams, John C. (2011)
To understand Fed policy at this point, you have to look at this whole picture. We have good GDP growth, but a yawning shortfall of employment and output from potential levels. ; Presentation to the Chicago Booth Graduate School of Business Alumni Club of San Francisco, San Francisco, Ca, February 22, 2011
Speech , Paper 83

Speech
Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts
Williams, John C. (2018-02-02)
Presentation to the Financial Women of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February 2, 2018.
Speech , Paper 186

Speech
Bank regulation in the post-crisis world
Williams, John C. (2012)
Presentation to the California Bankers Association, 121st Annual Convention, Dana Point, CA, May 4, 2012
Speech

Speech
Assessing the New Normal(s). Speech to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco’s 2016 Member Conference, San Francisco, California, October 21, 2016
Williams, John C. (2016-10-21)
Presentation to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco?s 2016 Member Conference, by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, for delivery on October 21, 2016.
Speech , Paper 171

Speech
Sailing into headwinds: the uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy
Williams, John C. (2010)
Presentation to Joint Meeting of the San Francisco and Salt Lake City Branch Boards of Directors. Closing Luncheon. Salt Lake City, UT, September 8, 2010
Speech , Paper 85

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