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Working Paper
The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios (2004)
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 804

Speech
The outlook, education, and the future of the American economy
Williams, John C. (2015-11-07)
Presentation to the Arizona Council on Economic Education Tempe, Arizona
Speech , Paper 158

Working Paper
Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth
Williams, John C.; Laubach, Thomas; Edge, Rochelle M. (2004)
Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth--such as those experienced by the U.S. economy in the 1970s and 1990s--are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. In this paper, we analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth during the 1970s and 1990s and examine in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model the consequences of gradual real-time learning on the responses to shifts in the long-run productivity growth rate. We find that a simple updating rule based on an estimated Kalman filter model using real-time data describes ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2004-21

Speech
Diversity and Inclusion without Excuses. Speech at the Conference on “Improving Diversity in the Financial Services Industry: A Holistic View”, Rutgers University, Newark Campus, Newark, New Jersey, October 19, 2016
Williams, John C. (2016-10-19)
Presentation at the Conference on ?Improving Diversity in the Financial Services Industry: A Holistic View?, Rutgers University, Newark Campus, Newark, New Jersey, for delivery on October 19, 2016
Speech

Working Paper
Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy
Williams, John C.; Orphanides, Athanasios (2008)
This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation and uncertainty about the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We assume that agents have imperfect knowledge about the precise structure of the economy and form expectations using a forecasting model that they continuously update based on incoming data. We also allow for central bank uncertainty regarding the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We find that the optimal control policy derived under ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2008-09

Speech
An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability
Williams, John C. (2025-01-14)
Remarks at An Economy That Works for All: Housing Affordability, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.
Speech

Speech
Measure Twice, Cut Once
Williams, John C. (2021-05-11)
Remarks at SOFR Symposium: The Final Year (Part II) (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind
Williams, John C. (2016)
The labor market looks good, inflation is moving back toward the FOMC?s target, and the economic expansion remains on track. Under these conditions, monetary policy is going back to the basics. Sparking faster growth in the future through innovation and more rapid productivity gains will require investments to build human capital, which is outside the realm of monetary policy. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Sacramento Economic Forum in Sacramento, California, on May 13.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices
Williams, John C.; Mertens, Thomas M. (2020-09-02)
This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. We study a stylized New Keynesian model where the policy instrument is subject to a lower bound to motivate the empirical analysis. Two equilibria emerge: In the “target equilibrium,” policy is unconstrained most or all of the time, whereas in the “liquidity trap equilibrium,” policy is mostly or always constrained. We use options data on future interest rates and inflation to study whether the decrease in the natural real rate of interest leads to forecast ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2018-03

Speech
Looking Back, Looking Ahead
Williams, John C. (2017-01-17)
Presentation to the 2017 Economic Forecast, by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Sacramento, California, for delivery on January 17, 2017.
Speech , Paper 172

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