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Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2019-11-01)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Discussion Paper
Subprime facts: what (we think) we know about the subprime crisis and what we don’t
Willen, Paul S.; Goette, Lorenz; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Foote, Christopher L. (2008)
Using a variety of datasets, we document some basic facts about the current subprime crisis. Many of these facts are applicable to the crisis at a national level, while some illustrate problems relevant only to Massachusetts and New England. We conclude by discussing some outstanding questions about which the data, we believe, are not yet conclusive.
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 08-2

Working Paper
Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program
Willen, Paul S.; Gerardi, Kristopher S.; Loewenstein, Lara (2020-07-08)
Mortgage borrowers who have experienced employment disruptions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are unable to reﬁnance their loans to take advantage of historically low market rates. In this article, we analyze the eﬀects of a streamlined reﬁnance (“reﬁ”) program for government-insured loans that would allow borrowers to reﬁnance without needing to document employment or income. In addition, we consider a cash-out component that would allow borrowers to extract some of the substantial housing equity that many have accumulated in recent years.
Working Papers , Paper 20-21

Journal Article
Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation during COVID-19
Gerardi, Kristopher; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Willen, Paul S. (2021-06-22)
The COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by both high refinancing volumes and high rates of mortgage nonpayment. Refinancing activity differed significantly across racial and ethnic groups, and we show that the benefits from the lower interest rate environment were not shared equally. Compared to white borrowers, Black and Hispanic mortgage borrowers experienced higher rates of nonpayment, which reflected both a greater transition into nonpayment status for Black and Hispanic borrowers and a lower likelihood of resuming payments. However, strong house price appreciation in recent years, ...
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 6 , Pages 40

Discussion Paper
Payment size, negative equity, and mortgage default
Fuster, Andreas; Willen, Paul S. (2012)
Surprisingly little is known about the importance of mortgage payment size for default, as efforts to measure the treatment effect of rate increases or loan modifications are confounded by borrower selection. We study a sample of hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages that have experienced large rate reductions over the past years and are largely immune to these selection concerns. We show that interest rate changes dramatically affect repayment behavior. Our estimates imply that cutting a borrower?s payment in half reduces his hazard of becoming delinquent by about two-thirds, an effect that is ...
Public Policy Discussion Paper , Paper 12-10

Working Paper
Technological Innovation in Mortgage Underwriting and the Growth in Credit: 1985-2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2018-12-07)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessment of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1816

Working Paper
Do Lenders Still Discriminate? A Robust Approach for Assessing Differences in Menus
Zhang, David Hao; Willen, Paul S. (2020-12-01)
We use a new methodology to assess mortgage pricing discrimination faced by minority borrowers. We identify a “menu problem” that comes from the multidimensional nature of mortgage pricing: When getting a mortgage, borrowers can choose to avoid closing costs and pay a high interest rate or contribute to closing costs to get a lower rate. While data on both dimensions of mortgage pricing are by now often available, intuitively attractive metrics of lender pricing discrimination used in the literature can lead to both false and contradictory results. For example, it is sometimes observed ...
Working Papers , Paper 20-19

Journal Article
Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program
Gerardi, Kristopher; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2020-06-25)
Mortgage borrowers who have experienced employment disruptions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic are unable to refinance their loans to take advantage of historically low market rates. In this article, we analyze the effects of a streamlined refinance ("refi") program for government-insured loans that would allow borrowers to refinance without needing to document employment or income. In addition, we consider a cash-out component that would allow borrowers to extract some of the substantial amount of housing equity that many have accumulated in recent years.
Policy Hub , Volume 2020 , Issue 8 , Pages 22

Working Paper
Borrowing costs and the demand for equity over the life cycle
Willen, Paul S.; Kubler, Felix; Davis, Steven J. (2005)
We construct a life-cycle model that delivers realistic behavior for both equity holdings and borrowings. The key model ingredient is a wedge between the cost of borrowing and the risk-free investment return. Borrowing can either raise or lower equity demand, depending on the cost of borrowing. A borrowing rate equal to the expected return on equity ? which we show roughly matches the data ? minimizes the demand for equity. Alternative models with no borrowing or limited borrowing at the risk-free rate cannot simultaneously fit empirical evidence on borrowing and equity holdings.
Working Papers , Paper 05-7

Journal Article
The rising gap between primary and secondary mortgage rates
Willen, Paul S.; Madar, Laurel; Lucca, David O.; Molloy, Linsey; Fuster, Andreas; Goodman, Laurie (2013-12)
While mortgage rates reached historic lows during 2012, the spread between primary and secondary rates rose to very high levels. This trend reflected a number of factors that potentially affected mortgage originator costs and profits and restrained the pass-through from lower secondary rates to borrowers? funding costs. This article describes the mortgage origination and securitization process and the way in which originator profits are determined. The authors calculate a series of originator profits and unmeasured costs (OPUCs) for the period 1994 to 2012, and show that these OPUCs increased ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 17-39

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