Search Results
Working Paper
Regime shifts in real estate markets: Time-varying effects of the U.S. and Japanese economies on house prices in Hawaii
We show that house prices may be driven entirely by the demands of one identifiable group for several years and then by demands of another group at other times. We present evidence that house prices in Hawaii were subject to such regime shifts. Prices responded to demands associated with American income and wealth for most years from 1975 through 2008. From the middle of the 1980s through the early 1990s, however, house prices responded to Japanese income and wealth. Statistical tests indicate that the regime-shifting model outperformed the constant-coefficient model. The regime shifting ...
Journal Article
Leading economic indicators
Journal Article
Credit union mergers: efficiencies and benefits
Mergers tend to improve credit union cost efficiency. When the acquirer is much larger than the target credit union, target members benefit in terms of lower loan rates and higher deposit rates, while acquirer members see little change. When merger partners are more equal in size, these benefits are shared more evenly. Over time, credit union mergers have shifted from, on average, only benefiting targets to also benefiting acquirers to some extent.
Journal Article
Tax-free bonds
Journal Article
Inflation-proof long-term bonds
Journal Article
Constructing the Home Purchase Sentiment Index
Consumer attitudes about buying and selling homes can inform us about future housing and mortgage markets. The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) summarizes data from the National Housing Survey on consumers? conditions, attitudes, and intentions about housing. The HPSI shows promise both as a stand-alone indicator and as a supplement for evaluating and forecasting housing and mortgage markets. Analysis reveals the index accurately projected strong home sales in 2014 and 2015 and a weaker outlook toward the end of 2016, following the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates.
Journal Article
Consumer sentiment and consumer spending
This Economic Letter reviews research on whether measures of consumer attitudes improve forecasts of consumer spending.
Journal Article
Policies and prescriptions for safe and sound banking: shocks, lessons, and prospects
The author illustrates the extent to which ensuing regulatory changes conform to the prescriptions of Perspectives on Safe and Sound Banking. He probes whether relatively untested regulatory strictures, such as prompt corrective action, will prevail when banking is heavily stressed. He then discusses how "home-run regulation" extends the reach of individual states' bank charters nationwide and whether the Fed will eventually regulate financial institutions marketwide.