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Working Paper
Navigating constraints: the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy, 1935-59
Wheelock, David C.; Carlson, Mark A. (2014-10-01)
The 1950s are often cited as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s. Whereas others have debated whether the Fed had a sophisticated understanding of how to implement policy, our focus is on how the constraints on the Fed changed over time. Roosevelt Administration gold policies and New Deal legislation limited the Fed?s ability to conduct an independent ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 205

Journal Article
How well do initial claims forecast employment growth over the business cycle and over time?
Kliesen, Kevin L.; Wheelock, David C. (2012)
Initial claims may now be useful for forecasting employment growth during periods of increasing economic activity.>
Economic Synopses

Journal Article
Has the bond market forgotten oil?
Wheelock, David C. (2005-05)
Monetary Trends , Issue May

Journal Article
A history of the asymmetric policy directive
Wheelock, David C.; Thornton, Daniel L. (2000-09)
Review , Volume 82 , Issue Sep , Pages 1-16

Journal Article
Can deposit insurance increase the risk of bank failure? Some historical evidence
Wheelock, David C.; Wilson, Paul W. (1994-05)
Review , Issue May , Pages 57-71

Journal Article
Banking industry consolidation and market structure: impact of the financial crisis and recession
Wheelock, David C. (2011-11)
The number of U.S. commercial banks and savings institutions declined by 12 percent between December 31, 2006, and December 31, 2010, continuing a consolidation trend begun in the mid-1980s. Banking industry consolidation has been marked by sharply higher shares of deposits held by the largest banks?the 10 largest banks now hold nearly 50 percent of total U.S. deposits. However, antitrust policy is predicated on the assumption that banking markets are local in nature, and enforcement has focused on preventing bank mergers from increasing the concentration of local banking markets. The author ...
Review , Volume 93 , Issue Nov , Pages 419-438

Journal Article
Monetary policy and financial market expectations: what did they know and when did they know it?
Wheelock, David C.; Pakko, Michael R. (1996-07)
Interest rates sometimes seem to respond to Federal Reserve policy actions in unexpected ways--for example, falling when the Fed " tightens" monetary policy or rising when the Fed "eases" policy. In this article, Michael R. Pakko and David C. Wheelock attempt to demystify such responses. They show how trading in the federal funds futures market reveals public expectations of Federal Reserve actions, and how our knowledge of these expectations can help us interpret the behavior of interest rates.
Review , Volume 78 , Issue Jul , Pages 19-32

Journal Article
Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature
Wheelock, David C.; Wohar, Mark E. (2009-09)
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity. Most studies use linear regression techniques to forecast changes in output or dichotomous choice models to forecast recessions. Others use time-varying parameter models, such as Markov-switching models and smooth transition models, to account for structural changes or other nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in ...
Review , Volume 91 , Issue Sep , Pages 419-440

Journal Article
Deposit insurance reform
Wheelock, David C.; Vaughan, Mark D. (2002-10)
In the cover story, find out why some bankers are encouraging Congress to raise the ceiling for insurance on deposits to $130,000 from $100,000 per account. Opponents point out that in the wake of the last increase, the S&L crisis occurred.
The Regional Economist , Issue Oct. , Pages 4-9

Working Paper
New evidence on returns to scale and product mix among U.S. commercial banks
Wheelock, David C.; Wilson, Paul W. (1997)
Numerous studies have found that banks exhaust scale economies at low levels of output, but most are based on the estimation of parametric cost functions which misrepresent bank cost. Here we avoid specification error by using nonparametric kernal regression techniques. We modify measures of scale and product mix economies introduced by Berger et al. (1987) to accommodate the nonparametric estimation approach, and estimate robust confidence intervals to assess the statistical significance of returns to scale. We find that banks experience increasing returns to scale up to approximately $500 ...
Working Papers , Paper 1997-003

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