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Discussion Paper
Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience
With public debt at high levels, some governments have begun to explore financing additional expenditures without raising taxes while also not increasing public debt outstanding. One possibility is using proceeds from valuation gains on gold reserves, as has been floated in the U.S. and Belgium recently.
Working Paper
De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar's Role in International Reserves
I examine how governments have managed their holdings of gold and dollar reserves in recent decades, a period when gold’s share of aggregate international reserves rose and the dollar’s share fell. Using data on central banks’ reserve currency composition and official sector purchases of U.S. assets, I argue that gold reserve accumulation is generally not associated with de-dollarization of international reserves at the country level, except in a few prominent cases. Instead, gold purchases are more consistent with most countries pursuing a modest diversification of international ...
Discussion Paper
A Brief Illustrated History of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet
The size of the Federal Reserve's balance expanded dramatically from 2008 to 2022 and has recently begun to adjust as the Fed moves toward a policy of "ample" reserves. While this expansion was unprecedented in its speed and came after a long period of stability, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has risen and fallen and changed in composition over time. This note provides a graphical review of the evolution of the balance sheet from the Fed's founding in 1914 through 2025, with particular emphasis on how the balance sheet changed as the gold standard ended in the early 1970s, as the Fed ...
Discussion Paper
Why Gold Didn't Actually Overtake Treasury Securities as the World's "Favorite" Reserve Asset
In 2025, world international reserves held in gold surpassed foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities (figure 1), a fact drawing attention from media and policymakers (Nangle, 2025; European Central Bank, 2026; Storbeck and Hook, 2026, for example). Should this be interpreted as gold overtaking U.S. Treasury securities in its appeal as a reserve asset? I argue that the answer is no, as a comparison of world gold reserves and aggregate foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasury securities is problematic for a couple reasons.
Discussion Paper
Foreign Portfolio Investment When the United States was an Emerging Market
In this note, we analyze two surveys occurring in 1853 and 1869 and compare the patterns of foreign ownership then to foreign portfolio investment in the present-day United States.
Discussion Paper
Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasury Securities during the Pandemic
Foreign investors hold a sizable amount of U.S. Treasury securities—$7.5 trillion or about 35 percent of the total outstanding—so net purchases by foreign investors receive significant attention from a variety of sources, including academic researchers, finance professionals, and journalists. During the pandemic, foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities has received scrutiny for a variety of reasons, including the contribution of foreign investors to the massive selloff in March 2020 (Duffie, 2020; Vissing-Jorgensen, forthcoming) and the ability of foreign investors to absorb ...
Working Paper
Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era
Financial intermediary balance sheets matter for asset returns even when these intermediaries do not directly participate in the relevant asset markets. During the National Banking Era, liquidity conditions for the New York Clearinghouse (NYCH) banks forecast excess returns for stocks, bonds, and currencies. The NYCH banks had little to no direct participation in these markets; their main link to these markets was through securities financing. Liquidity conditions affect asset prices through the credit growth of the NYCH banks, which shapes marginal investors' discount rates. I use ...