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Initial Unemployment Claims Appear Stable over Past Several Months
It is likely that the latest rise in initial claims reflects difficulty adjusting the data for seasonal patterns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than a deterioration in underlying economic conditions.
U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth
Most indicators—particularly those measuring labor markets—provide strong evidence that the U.S. economy did not fall into a recession in the first quarter.