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Working Paper
Text Sentiment About Monetary Policy
This paper uses text data from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting transcripts to estimate the reference levels of full employment, inflation, and financial conditions perceived by voting members and to uncover time variation in the Taylor rule parameters. We construct topic dictionaries on economic slack, inflation, and financial markets, and infer reference levels from members’ sentiment using a state-space model. The estimated employment reference level indicates that FOMC voting members generally perceived the labor market as tighter than implied by the Congressional Budget ...