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Working Paper
Suitability of a County-Level Income Definition for Analysis of Lower-Income Communities
Troland, Erin; Agnes, Isabella; Dries, Ellie; Liu, Jessica; Merchant, Zofsha; Shaalan, Fatimah; Tran, Michelle; Tranfaglia, Anna; Webber, Douglas A. (2025-06-02)
This paper examines the costs and benefits of using a straightforward county-level income definition in the classification and study of lower-income communities. A definition based on population-weighted distribution of county-level median household incomes does a good job of identifying the most economically disadvantaged communities across a wide range of indicators. We show robustness to the use of different thresholds, levels of geography, and cost-of-living adjustments.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-039

Working Paper
Local Labor Market Tightness and Job Quality: Evidence from Job Changers
Zabek, Mike; Hershbein, Brad; Webber, Douglas A.; Lim, Katherine (2026-06-22)
Using novel data from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, we examine how labor market tightness affects workers’ job quality. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in job vacancies not only increases the probability of changing jobs, it yields an 11–18 percent increase in the (unconditional) probability of switching to a better job overall, and one with greater pay and benefits, interest in the work, and advancement opportunities. Because tight labor markets improve both worker pay and job amenities in roughly the same proportion, their benefits to workers are ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2026-043

Working Paper
Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress
Kelchen, Robert; Ritter, Dubravka; Webber, Douglas A. (2025-01-06)
In this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close. Using this data, we first develop a series of predictive models of financial distress, utilizing factors like operational revenue/expense patterns, sources of revenue, metrics of liquidity and leverage, enrollment/staff patterns, and ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-003

Working Paper
Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress
Kelchen, Robert; Ritter, Dubravka; Webber, Douglas A. (2024-12-02)
In this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close. Using this data, we first develop a series of predictive models of financial distress, utilizing factors like operational revenue/expense patterns, sources of revenue, metrics of liquidity and leverage, enrollment/staff patterns, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-20

Working Paper
Affording Degree Completion: An Experimental Study of Completion Grants at Accessible Public Universities
Goldrick-Rab, Sara; Baker-Smith, Christine; York, Travis T.; Clark, Kallie; Webber, Douglas A.; Perkins, Christel (2023-07)
To improve college affordability and graduation rates, universities are increasingly allocating “completion grants” to students who are nearing the finish line but facing financial challenges. Using an experimental design and common program model across 11 broad-access public universities in ten states, we assessed the impact of a completion grants averaging $1,200 distributed among more than 14,000 students. We find that, despite university expectations that most students were near completion, only two-thirds of students eligible to receive a completion grant graduated within the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-047

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