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Journal Article
Taxing capital gains
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
Macroeconomic price indexes
Price Indexes allow one to compare the average levels of prices at different times. Despite their widespread use, price indexes do not answer all questions as well as analysts might wish. Macroeconomic Price Indexes is a guide for users of major price indexes. It provides details about several price indexes to help users intelligently decide what they can learn by using particular indexes.
Journal Article
The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts
The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests.
Briefing
How useful are consumer surveys as macroeconomic indicators?
Most economic indicators attempt to summarize what happened at a particular time in the past. Consumer surveys, however, examine attitudes and are thus fundamentally different from other widely reported indicators. Some surveys, such as those that measure inflation expectations, have proven to be useful to economists and policymakers, while the evidence is more mixed for others, such as forecasts of consumer spending.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1984
Roy H. Webb summarizes the consensus outlook for the current year in Forecasts 1984. (A more detailed summary of individual forecasts is available in the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmonds Business Forecasts 1984.) Most forecasters are calling for a continuation of the above-average growth and relatively low inflation of 1983. However, the consensus forecast has not been very accurate in the last two years.
Journal Article
Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations
In his article, Vector Autoregressions as a Tool for Forecast Evaluation, Roy H. Webb proposes that VAR forecasts be used as a standard of comparison for other forecasts. He begins by explaining how conventional forecasting models are constructed and used, and summarizes a few common objections to these models. He then describes the VAR methodology and compares forecasts from a simple VAR model with those from a consulting firm that uses a conventional model and with a series of consensus forecasts. The VAR model holds its own in this competition; in fact, only the VAR model is able to ...
Journal Article
Depression or price controls : a fictitious dilemma for anti-inflation policy
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
Forecasts 1982
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
National productivity statistics
Journal Article
Which price index should a central bank employ?