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Working Paper
Inadequate tests of the rationality of expectations
In several recent articles, authors have regressed actual values of macroeconomic aggregates on predicted values and claimed that they were testing the rationality of expectations. This paper interprets those regressions as testing a joint hypothesis of imperfect information and rational expectations. An empirical method is proposed to separate the components of the joint hypothesis. Predictions from two major forecasting services are examined, and results are found that are consistent with rational expectations but inconsistent with the joint hypothesis. It is therefore argued that many ...
Journal Article
Forecasts 1983
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Labor market data
A guide to the use and interpretation of labor market data (employment, unemployment, and wages). Important statistical sources are surveyed and their histories outlined.
Journal Article
Interest rates and federal deficits
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
Forecasts 1982
An abstract for this article is not available.
Journal Article
The national income and product accounts
Journal Article
Taxing capital gains
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
Wage-price restraint and macroeconomic disequilibrium
An abstract for this article is not available
Journal Article
The irrelevance of tests for bias in series of macroeconomic forecasts
The idea of rational expectations has revolutionized macroeconomics. Several authors believe that the idea can be easily tested by a simple econometric procedure. This paper, however, presents several reasons for questioning the relevance of such tests.
Journal Article
Which price index should a central bank employ?