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Author:Watson, Mark W. 

Working Paper
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 94-13

Journal Article
Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach : commentary

Paper for a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York entitled Financial Innovation and Monetary Transmission
Economic Policy Review , Volume 8 , Issue May , Pages 113-116

Journal Article
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?

Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors?construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services?account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"

Review , Volume 87 , Issue Jul , Pages 453-458

Working Paper
Sectoral vs. aggregate shocks : a structural factor analysis of industrial production

This paper uses factor analytic methods to decompose industrial production (IP) into components arising from aggregate shocks and idiosyncratic sector-specific shocks. An approximate factor model finds that nearly all (90%) of the variability of quarterly growth rates in IP are associated with common factors. Because common factors may reflect sectoral shocks that have propagated by way of input-output linkages, we then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of these linkages. In particular, we show that neoclassical multisector models, of the type first introduced by Long ...
Working Paper , Paper 08-07

Working Paper
Measures of fit for calibrated models

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 91-9

Working Paper
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 93-15

Journal Article
How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?

Economic Quarterly , Volume 89 , Issue Sum , Pages 71-90

Conference Paper
Phillips curve inflation forecasts

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United States and conducts an extensive empirical analysis that recapitulates and clarifies this literature using a consistent data set and methodology. The literature review and empirical results are gloomy and indicate that Phillips curve forecasts (broadly interpreted as forecasts using an activity variable) are better than other multivariate forecasts, but their performance is episodic, sometimes better than and sometimes worse than a good (not nave) univariate benchmark. The ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings]

Working Paper
Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle

Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 95-10

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