Conference Paper
Modeling inflation after the crisis
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (2010)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole

Conference Paper
Has inflation become harder to forecast?
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (2005)
Proceedings

Working Paper
Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations
Stock, James H.; Watson, Mark W. (1994)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 94-13

Journal Article
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?
Hornstein, Andreas; Watson, Mark W.; Foerster, Andrew T.; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (2019)
Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors?construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services?account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Journal Article
Commentary on \\"what's real about the business cycle?\\"
Watson, Mark W. (2005-07)
Review , Volume 87 , Issue Jul , Pages 453-458

Working Paper
Testing for cointegration when some of the cointegrating vectors are known
Watson, Mark W.; Horvath, Michael T. K. (1993)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 93-15

Journal Article
Market anticipations of monetary policy actions - commentary
Watson, Mark W. (2002-07)
Review , Volume 84 , Issue Jul , Pages 95-98

Working Paper
A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: econometric issues and recent performance
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (1992)
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper 92-7

Journal Article
How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?
Watson, Mark W.; Stock, James H. (2003-07)
Economic Quarterly , Volume 89 , Issue Sum , Pages 71-90

Working Paper
Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
Foerster, Andrew; Hornstein, Andreas; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.; Watson, Mark W. (2019-05-28)
We find disparate trend variation in TFP and labor growth across major U.S. production sectors over the post-WWII period. When aggregated, these sector-specific trends imply secular declines in the growth rate of aggregate labor and TFP. We embed this sectoral trend variation into a dynamic multi-sector framework in which materials and capital used in each sector are produced by other sectors. The presence of capital induces important network effects from production linkages that amplify the consequences of changing sectoral trends on GDP growth. Thus, in some sectors, changes in TFP and ...
Working Paper , Paper 19-11