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Discussion Paper
Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System: A Summary
This note reports a selection of results from research intended to quantitatively measure the buildup and reduction of vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system over time.
Working Paper
Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-four indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial-sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging ...
Working Paper
Equity market misvaluation, financing, and investment
We quantify how much nonfundamental movements in stock prices affect firm decisions. We estimate a dynamic investment model in which firms can finance with equity or cash (net of debt). Misvaluation affects equity values, and firms optimally issue and repurchase overvalued and undervalued shares. The funds owing to and from these activities come from either investment, dividends, or net cash. The model fits a broad set of data moments in large heterogeneous samples and across industries. Firms respond to misvaluation by adjusting financing more than by adjusting investment. Managers' rational ...
Discussion Paper
The Rise in Equity Valuation Ratios
Recent discussions by some market participants have noted that a number of equity valuation ratios are elevated.