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Discussion Paper
Impact of Leverage Ratio Relief Announcement and Expiry on Bank Stock Prices
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 drastically increased uncertainty throughout the economy. This led to turmoil in various financial markets, evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average in March 2020 posting its largest single-day drop since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Working Paper
Finance and Productivity Growth: Firm-level Evidence
Using data on a broad set of European firms, we find a strong positive relationship between the use of external financing and future productivity (TFP) growth within firms. This relationship is robust to various measures of financing and productivity, and strengthens as financing costs increase. We provide evidence against a reverse-causality explanation by showing that this relationship arises from the component of TFP that is outside the information set of the firm. These findings indicate that financial development supports productivity growth within firms, and helps explain why economic ...
Working Paper
COVID-19 as a Stress Test: Assessing the Bank Regulatory Framework
The widespread economic damage caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses the first major test of the bank regulatory reforms put in place following the global financial crisis. This study assesses this framework, with an emphasis on capital and liquidity requirements. Leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, banks were well-capitalized and held ample liquid assets, reflecting in part heightened requirements. Capital requirements were comparable across major jurisdictions, despite differences in the implementation of the international Basel standards. The overall robust capital and liquidity ...
Discussion Paper
The Social Discount Rate in Developing Countries
The "social discount rate" is the interest rate used in cost-benefit analyses of infrastructure and other public projects.
Working Paper
Time-varying Volatility and the Power Law Distribution of Stock Returns
While many studies find that the tail distribution of high frequency stock returns follow a power law, there are only a few explanations for this finding. This study presents evidence that time-varying volatility can account for the power law property of high frequency stock returns. The power law coefficients obtained by estimating a conditional normal model with nonparametric volatility show a striking correspondence to the power law coefficients estimated from returns data for stocks in the Dow Jones index. A cross-sectional regression of the data coefficients on the model-implied ...
Working Paper
What is the chance that the equity premium varies over time? evidence from predictive regressions
We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. Departing from previous studies, we allow the regressor to be stochastic. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio and payout yield, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about the existence of predictability sharply modify their views in favor of predictability when confronted by the historical time series of returns and predictor variables. We find that taking into account the ...
Discussion Paper
Impact of Leverage Ratio Relief Announcement and Expiry on Bank Stock Prices
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 drastically increased uncertainty throughout the economy. This led to turmoil in various financial markets, evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average in March 2020 posting its largest single-day drop since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Working Paper
The expected real return to equity
The expected return to equity--typically measured as a historical average--is a key variable in the decision making of investors. A recent literature based on analysts forecasts and practitioner surveys finds estimates of expected returns that are sometimes much lower than historical averages. This study presents a novel method that estimates the expected return to equity using only observable data. The method builds on a present value relationship that links dividends, earnings, and investment to market values via expected returns. Given a model that captures this relationship, one can infer ...
Discussion Paper
The Rise in Equity Valuation Ratios
Recent discussions by some market participants have noted that a number of equity valuation ratios are elevated.
Working Paper
Profitability and the lifecycle of firms
Using data on listed and unlisted firms in the U.K., this study documents that average profitability changes systematically with age. In their early years, firms realize substantial profitability increases, while mature firms face slow declines in profitability. A model of endogenous profitability changes arising from product development captures this pattern. Investment in product development generates profitability increases for young firms while competitive pressures from new entrants lead to profitability declines for mature firms. In addition, the model predicts that young firms realize ...