Working Paper
International capital flows and U.S. interest rates
Warnock, Veronica C.; Warnock, Francis E. (2005)
Foreign flows have an economically large and statistically significant impact on long-term interest rates. Controlling for various macroeconomic factors we estimate that had there been no foreign flows into U.S. bonds over the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield would currently be 150 basis points higher; even a step-down to average inflows would imply an increase of 105 basis points. The impact of the headline-making foreign official flows?a relatively small subset of total foreign accumulation of U.S. bonds?is also significant but markedly smaller. Our results are robust to a number of ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 840

Working Paper
The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?
Warnock, Veronica C.; Warnock, Francis E. (2000)
This paper attempts to add to the understanding of changes in the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations by examining disaggregated employment data. Specifically, we use a stochastic variance approach on monthly employment data for the 1946-1996 period to highlight two stylized facts of aggregate U.S. employment - greater volatility in recessions than expansions and reduced volatility since the early 1980s. These patterns are not, however, apparent in each sector of the economy. Asymmetric volatility is only evident in manufacturing and trade; other sectors, such as construction or the ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 677