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Journal Article
Sectoral Impacts of Trade Wars
In recent years, we have witnessed rising trade protectionism with broad ranges of tariffs imposed on intermediate products. In this article, we develop an accounting framework to evaluate the sectoral impacts of the current U.S.-China trade war. We find that U.S. final demand and intermediate demand for goods produced by China decline significantly, with the largest losses occurring in the Electronic and ICT (information and communications technology) industry and the Electrical industry. We obtain sizable deadweight losses for the United States, particularly in the Electronic and ICT; ...
Working Paper
Inflation and economic activity in a multiple matching model of money
This paper investigates the relationship between money growth, inflation, and productive activity in a general equilibrium model where search frictions motivate the transactions role of money. The use of a multiple matching technique, where search frictions are captured by limited consumption variety, allows us to study price determination in a search-theoretic environment with divisible money and goods. We find that in such a setting, a positive feedback between work and shopping effort decisions create a channel by which inflation can positively influence real activity. This feature also ...
Journal Article
Fertility and Internal Migration
While there is a renewed literature connecting internal migration to various issues related to structural transformation such as urban labor and housing markets, the relationship between internal migration and demographic transition is much under-studied despite its importance in the process of economic development. Our article fills this knowledge gap. By constructing a simple dynamic framework in which fertility and rural-urban migration decisions are both determined, we show that more-rapid urban productivity advancement can lead to a positive relationship between migration and fertility. ...
Journal Article
High inflation: causes and consequences
Using evidence from seven hyperinflationary episodes in four Latin American countries in the second half of the 1980s, John Rogers and Ping Wang examine the causes and consequences of high inflation. The article emphasizes four issues: the welfare costs of inflation and real costs of stabilization, the common features of the chronically high inflations experienced in Latin American countries, the main causes of high inflation, and the widely different outcomes of several stabilization programs. ; Rogers and Wang find that the welfare costs of even moderate periods of inflation may not be ...
Working Paper
Real exchange rate movements in high inflation countries
We empirically assess the sources of fluctuations in the real exchange rates of four high inflation countries, for which monetary shocks are generally believed to be predominant. In a benchmark model we identify fiscal, monetary, and output shocks based on a general-equilibrium optimizing model. We then estimate two alternative extensions. In the first, we decompose the output shock into supply and demand disturbances; in the second, the monetary shock is further decomposed into money supply and nominal exchange rate disturbances. Monetary shocks are found to be generally significant. Real ...