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Journal Article
Entrepreneurs in the U.S. face less red tape
Journal Article
Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration
This paper compares various specifications of the gravity model of trade as nested versions of a general specification that uses bilateral country-pair fixed effects to control for heterogeneity. For each specification, we show that the atheoretical restrictions used to obtain them from the general model are not supported statistically. Because the gravity model has become the "workhorse" baseline model for estimating the effects of international integration, this has important empirical implications. In particular, we show that, unless heterogeneity is accounted for correctly, gravity ...
Journal Article
Anecdotes help Fed to steer the economy
Formal data don't tell policy-makers everything they need to know about the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee also pays attention to anecdotes gathered from the front lines of business.
Working Paper
Gravity model specification and the effects of the Canada-U.S. border
There is a well-established literature finding that the Canada-U.S. border has a large dampening effect on trade, is asymmetric, and differs across provinces. In this paper, I demonstrate that the standard gravity model used to obtain these results provides biased estimates of the volume of trade. I attribute this to heterogeneity bias and reestimate the effects of the border using a gravity model that allows for heterogeneous gravity equations. Doing so does not alter the general results of existing studies, although it does yield a border effect that is 40 percent larger, reverses the ...
Working Paper
Voting with your feet in the United Kingdom: using cross-migration rates to estimate relative living standards
This paper reexamines and extends the literature on the use of migration rates to estimate compensating differentials as measures of regional quality of life. I estimate an interregional migration regression for the UK and use the results to measure regional quality of life and standard of living. The results suggest a North-South divide within England, and that Scotland and Wales have relatively high levels of both. The results also lead to a rejection of regional standard-of-living equivalence (long-run regional equilibrium) in the UK
Journal Article
The \\"man-cession\\" of 2008-2009: it's big, but it's not great
That men are losing jobs at a much faster rate than women during this recession shouldn't be a surprise. The pattern is typical. And it's not just the men in the hard hats who are out of a job - men in almost all categories of work are being affected disproportionately.
Journal Article
The revealed cost of unemployment
The costs of unemployment usually are stated in terms of the amount of aggregate income that is foregone because of resources left idle. Although useful, this method does not provide all of the information necessary for normative analysis. In this article, Stratford Douglas and Howard J. Wall propose an alternative that measures the cost of regional and national unemployment by the amount that people would be willing to pay to avoid it. The authors' model treats unemployment as a region-specific disamenity, and uses regional cross-migration data to reveal preferences towards income and ...
Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Working Paper
Forecasting national recessions using state level data
A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to predict the NBER expansion and recession classification, we assess the forecasting benefits of adding state-level employment growth to a common list of national-level predictors. As ...