Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 76.
(refine search)
Working Paper
Measuring relative quality of life from a cross-migration regression, with an application to Canadian provinces
We discuss specification of regression models for using migration data to infer the living standards of different regions, and for observing how much of the standard of living is determined by economic opportunities versus non-pecuniary amenities. We estimate a regression using Canadian data from 1976-95, which results in rankings of the provinces with respect to overall living standards and amenities, with different rankings for different age groups. The regression also uncovers some interesting evidence as to the existence of equilibrium
Journal Article
Price stability and the rising tide: how low inflation lifts all ships
The low and stable inflation that the Fed has relentlessly pursued over the past decade or so has buoyed virtually all demographic groups, enabling most Americans to do a lot more than just keep their heads above water.
Working Paper
Controlling for geographic dispersion when estimating the Japanese Phillips curve
This paper argues that estimation of the Phillips curve for Japan should take account of the geographic dispersion of labor-market conditions. We find evidence that the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate is convex. With such convexity, wage inflation can occur when unemployment rates across regions become more disperse, even if the aggregate unemployment rate is unchanged. We show that controlling for the geographic dispersion of unemployment rates yields a flatter Phillips curve and a higher natural rate of unemployment.
Journal Article
How important is the U.S.-Canada border?
Journal Article
Walking a tightrope into 2008
Journal Article
The effects of recessions across demographic groups
The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but are just as interesting. During the same period, the employment of single people fell at more than twice the rate that it did for married people and the decline for black workers was one and a half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this ...
Working Paper
States and the business cycle
We model the U.S. business cycle using a dynamic factor model that identifies common factors underlying fluctuations in state-level income and employment growth. We find three such common factors, each of which is associated with a set of factor loadings that indicate the extent to which each state?s business cycle is related to the national business cycle. According to the factor loadings, there is a great deal of heterogeneity in the nature of the links between state and national economies. In addition to exhibiting interesting geographic patterns, the factor loadings tend to be related to ...
Journal Article
Color me beige
Journal Article
Anecdotes help Fed to steer the economy
Formal data don't tell policy-makers everything they need to know about the economy. The Federal Open Market Committee also pays attention to anecdotes gathered from the front lines of business.
Working Paper
Forecasting national recessions using state level data
A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to predict the NBER expansion and recession classification, we assess the forecasting benefits of adding state-level employment growth to a common list of national-level predictors. As ...