Search Results
Journal Article
Is the population boom a boon?
Journal Article
Walking a tightrope into 2008
Working Paper
The determinants of aid in the post-cold war era
This paper estimates the responsiveness of aid to recipient countries? economic and physical needs, civil/political rights, and government effectiveness. We look exclusively at the post-Cold War era and use fixed effects to control for the political, strategic, and other considerations of donors. We find that aid and per capita income have been negatively related, while aid has been positively related to infant mortality, rights, and government effectiveness.
Working Paper
Forecasting national recessions using state level data
A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information regarding business cycle phases contained in subnational measures of economic activity. Using a probit model to predict the NBER expansion and recession classification, we assess the forecasting benefits of adding state-level employment growth to a common list of national-level predictors. As ...
Working Paper
Biofuel subsidies: an open-economy analysis
We present a general equilibrium analysis of biofuel subsidies in an open-economy context. In the small-country case, when a Pigouvian tax on conventional fuels such as crude is in place, the optimal biofuel subsidy is zero. When the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, however, a second-best biofuel subsidy (or tax) is optimal. In the large-country case, the optimal tax on crude departs from its standard Pigouvian level and a biofuel subsidy is optimal. A biofuel subsidy spurs global demand for food and confers a terms-of-trade benefit to the food-exporting nation. This might ...
Working Paper
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for 1976-2005. An early 1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Working Paper
Journal rankings in economics: handle with care
Nearly all journal rankings in economics use some weighted average of citations to calculate a journal's impact. These rankings are often used, formally or informally, to help assess the publication success of individual economists or institutions. Although ranking methods and opinions are legion, scant attention has been paid to the usefulness of any ranking as representative of the many articles published in a journal. First, because the distributions of citations across articles within a journal are seriously skewed, and the skewness differs across journals, the appropriate measure of ...
Working Paper
Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration
This paper compares various specifications of the gravity model of trade as nested versions of a general specification that uses bilateral country-pair fixed effects to control for heterogeneity. For each specification, we show that the a theoretical restrictions to obtain them from the general model are not supported statistically. Because the gravity model has become the ?workhorse? baseline model for estimating the effects of international integration, this has important empirical implications. In particular, we show that, unless heterogeneity is accounted for correctly, gravity models can ...
Journal Article
Regional business cycle phases in Japan
This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for the period 1976-2005. An early-1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an increase in the spread between the two phases. Although recessions tended to be experienced across a majority of regions throughout the sample period, the occurrence and lengths of recessions at the regional level have increased over time.
Working Paper
Measuring relative quality of life from a cross-migration regression, with an application to Canadian provinces
We discuss specification of regression models for using migration data to infer the living standards of different regions, and for observing how much of the standard of living is determined by economic opportunities versus non-pecuniary amenities. We estimate a regression using Canadian data from 1976-95, which results in rankings of the provinces with respect to overall living standards and amenities, with different rankings for different age groups. The regression also uncovers some interesting evidence as to the existence of equilibrium