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Discussion Paper
Chinese Banks' Dollar Lending Decline
The dominant international role of the U.S. dollar has received renewed attention in recent years, but across many measures, the dollar's dominance in international finance has changed little.2However, there has been a notable change in one statistic. Dollar-denominated cross-border bank lending to emerging market economies (EMEs) declined almost 10 percent between the start of 2022 and early 2024.3According to our analysis using both public and restricted BIS banking statistics, this is largely because of a shift in the currency composition of lending abroad by Chinese banks. With both ...
Report
How U.S. Bank Stock Prices Respond to Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical risk has emerged as a central driver of global financial markets, with episodes such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent conflicts in the Middle East triggering sharp movements in asset prices and increases in market volatility. This brief examines how geopolitical risk affects U.S. bank valuations and which institutions are most vulnerable. Through cross-border lending, foreign subsidiaries, and trading activities, banks face multifaceted exposure to geopolitical risk that can affect their profitability via credit losses, disrupted funding markets, and altered fee ...
Discussion Paper
How U.S. Bank Stock Prices Respond to Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical risk has emerged as a central driver of global financial markets, with episodes such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and recent conflicts in the Middle East triggering sharp movements in asset prices and increases in market volatility. But not all industries are exposed to such shocks in the same way (Caldara and Iacoviello 2022; Culver, Niepmann, and Shen 2025).