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Journal Article
How well are the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District prepared for the next recession?
Economic downturns often force state policymakers to enact sizable tax increases or spending cuts to close budget shortfalls. In this paper the authors make use of a Markov-switching regression model to empirically describe the expansions and contractions in the states of the Eighth Federal Reserve District. They use the estimated parameters from the switching regressions to form probability distributions of the revenue shortfalls states are likely to encounter in future slowdowns. This allows them to estimate the probability that each state's projected fiscal-year-end balances will be ...
Working Paper
State government finances: World War II to the current crisis
This article will explore the extent, causes, and proposed solutions of the current fiscal crisis from a historical perspective of state finance. Although the current fiscal crisis is severe, it becomes more difficult to assess unless one has a more complete understanding of the historical changes that have occurred in state revenue streams. This article will address the role of major revenue sources in the context of the current slowdown and also investigate how reliance on various revenue sources has changed over the past 50 years. The role of non-traditional revenue sources, such as state ...
Working Paper
A spatial analysis of state banking regulation
We use a spatial model to investigate a state?s choice of branch banking and interstate banking regimes as a function of the regime choices made by other states and other variables suggested in the literature. We extend the basic spatial econometric model by allowing spatial dependence to vary by geographic region. Our findings reveal that spatial effects have a large, statistically significant impact on state regulatory regime decisions. The importance of spatial correlation in the setting of state banking policies suggests the need to consider spatial effects in empirical models of state ...
Journal Article
State government finances: World War II to the current crises
This article examines the current state budget crises from a historical perspective. The role of major expenditures and revenue sources in the context of the current slowdown and how reliance on various revenue sources has changed since World War II are addressed. Tax revenue variability over the business cycle and the use of nontraditional revenue sources, such as state lotteries and casino gaming, are also discussed. The article further comments on the role of fiscal institutions, such as tax and expenditure limitation laws, rainy day funds, and balanced budget rules, in state budgeting and ...
Working Paper
Is the Light Rail “Tide” Lifting Property Values? Evidence from Hampton Roads, Virginia
In this paper we examine the effect of light rail transit on the residential real estate market in Hampton Roads, Virginia. The Norfolk Tide light rail began operations in August 2011 and has experienced disappointing levels of ridership over its first four years of operations. We estimate the effect of the Tide using a difference-in-differences model and consider several outcome variables for the residential housing market, including sales price, sales-list price spread and the time-on-market. Our identification strategy exploits a proposed rail line in neighboring Virginia Beach, Virginia, ...
Working Paper
Regional disparities in the spatial correlation of state income growth
This paper presents new evidence of spatial correlation in U.S. state income growth. We extend the basic spatial econometric model used in the growth literature by allowing spatial correlation in state income growth to vary across geographic regions. We find positive spatial correlation in income growth rates across neighboring states, but that the strength of this spatial correlation varies considerably by region. Spatial correlation in income growth is highest for states located in the Northeast and the South. Our findings have policy implications both at the state and national level, and ...
Working Paper
Red ink in the rearview mirror: local fiscal conditions and the issuance of traffic tickets
Municipalities have revenue motives for enforcing traffic laws in addition to public safety motives because many traffic offenses are punished via fines and the issuing municipality often retains the revenue. Anecdotal evidence supports this revenue motive. We empirically test this revenue motive using panel data on North Carolina counties. We find that significantly more tickets are issued in the year following a decline in revenue, but the issuance of traffic tickets does not decline in years following revenue increases. Our results suggest that tickets are used as a revenue generation tool ...