Search Results
Journal Article
District digest: Economic trends across the region
"Change in the Fifth district: what can the 2010 census tell us?"
Discussion Paper
Demand Is Up, But Can Supply Match It?
Discussion Paper
Automation and AI: What Does Adoption Look Like for Fifth District Businesses?
Technological developments shift the kinds of skills needed in the labor force. From innovations in agriculture to electricity to the personal computer to the internet, technology has shaped the way we work and the types of workers we need to produce the goods and provide the services that consumers demand. The tight labor market of the last few years has provided employers with further incentive to find ways to use automation to increase the productivity of existing workers and even reduce the need to hire more. The opportunities of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, ...
Journal Article
District Digest: Preparing to Work: The Demand for Postsecondary Education and How It's Changing
Starting around a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, and more acutely during the pandemic itself, postsecondary enrollment declined — most notably among community colleges, both in the Fifth District and in the United States as a whole. Yet the 2023-2024 academic year saw a shift in that trend as enrollment grew once again. What's going on?The unsatisfying answer is that there are conflicting forces at work, and it's hard to tell which will prevail. But one thing is clear: Combined with the anticipated decline in the college-age population, high costs of four-year degrees, and changing ...
Journal Article
State Labor Markets: What Can Data Tell (or Not Tell) Us?
Discussion Paper
Supply and Demand: When Will We See Balance?
Briefing
Predicting PCE Using the Richmond Fed Price Measure
The Richmond Fed survey measure of price changes comes out a month earlier than the PCE measure of inflation. Because the Richmond Fed price measure is known earlier, we can use the contemporaneous measure to provide an estimate of inflation.An empirical model with contemporaneous and past inflation changes — as measured by the Richmond Fed's price survey — notably reduces the out-of-sample forecast error obtained from a benchmark random walk model of inflation.Using the Richmond Fed price survey data prior to the release of September PCE, we forecast September PCE inflation to move from ...
Journal Article
District digest: Economic trends across the region
Article by Ann Macheras and Jack Blackwood, "Dimensions and drivers of metro area growth: how do Fifth district metros stack up?"
Journal Article
The Urban Core in the Tale of Three Cities
The Fifth District economy ? like the U.S. economy ? is increasingly driven by urban areas. In 2016, over 90 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was attributable to metropolitan statistical areas, or MSAs, while they occupied just under 50 percent of the nation's land mass. This is not a new phenomenon, but it remains an important one.
Journal Article
From Stylized to Quantitative Spatial Models of Cities
This paper describes the progression from a standard monocentric model of a city to its analog in the quantitative spatial framework recently reviewed by Redding and Rossi-Hansberg (forthcoming). In this progression, we preserve the basics of preferences, technology, and endowments across models. The monocentric model allows for many of a city's characteristics to be endogenous, including size, population, wages, and commercial and residential land rents, but it is also highly stylized. In contrast, quantitative spatial models impose far fewer restrictions in the way that these variables ...