Search Results
Introducing the CFO Survey
For almost 25 years, the Duke CFO Global Business Outlook has provided policymakers, academics, and the public with an understanding of how financial executives view the economy and prospects for their business. Today, three partners—Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta—announce an enhanced iteration of this survey, now called the CFO Survey. Starting with the second-quarter data release on July 8, 2020, the CFO Survey will offer the same crucial information about the economic outlook and, through some ...
Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives
We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms' capital deepening but instead reflect increases in ...
Briefing
Impacts of Government Spending Changes on Local Economies
Local multipliers measure how an economic shock in a specific region (such as a change in federal government spending in that region) affects the local economy.Based on our survey of studies, a reasonable estimate range for local fiscal multipliers is:An income multiplier of 1.3-2.0, or an additional $1 of government spending increasing local GDP by 1.3 to 2.0 times.An employment multiplier of 10-30 jobs in the local economy for every additional $1 million in government spending (or $33,000 to $100,000 per job).
Briefing
Predicting PCE Using the Richmond Fed Price Measure
The Richmond Fed survey measure of price changes comes out a month earlier than the PCE measure of inflation. Because the Richmond Fed price measure is known earlier, we can use the contemporaneous measure to provide an estimate of inflation.An empirical model with contemporaneous and past inflation changes — as measured by the Richmond Fed's price survey — notably reduces the out-of-sample forecast error obtained from a benchmark random walk model of inflation.Using the Richmond Fed price survey data prior to the release of September PCE, we forecast September PCE inflation to move from ...
Briefing
The size and structure of exports in the Fifth District economy
In the last 10 years, exports have played a growing role in the national economy. This has been especially true in the Fifth District since mid-2002.
Briefing
Are Firms Using Remote Work to Recruit and Retain Workers?
A Richmond Fed survey of employers in the Fifth District reveals that many firms — especially larger ones — are offering hybrid and remote work options to recruit and retain employees. Those same firms have expanded the geographic reach of their recruiting efforts. Expectations about the future direction of remote work differ a lot across sectors and employers.
Briefing
Are Firms Factoring Increasing Inflation Into Their Prices?
While inflation is low and stable, business leaders are well justified in paying little attention to aggregate inflation measures when making their own pricing decisions. In this article, we introduce a new set of quarterly questions in a business survey that help to ascertain the extent to which firms pay more attention to inflation measures as inflation rises. We find that, from July 2021 to January 2022, business leaders not only report paying more attention to aggregate inflation measures, but also report incorporating those measures into their own pricing decisions.
Briefing
Why Use a Diffusion Index?
Diffusion indexes are a useful way to summarize economic information from surveys because they are easy to understand and correlate well with economic activity over time. To use diffusion indexes most effectively as a measure of change, however, it is important that the extensive margin of the indicator in question explains more of the change in that indicator than the intensive margin. This article, and the papers described in it, can also be used to develop a confidence interval around any diffusion index.
Briefing
Changing Recruiting Practices and Methods in the Tight Labor Market
The unusually tight labor market has generated a wide range of challenges for employers attempting to hire workers. A survey conducted jointly by the Richmond Fed and the Richmond Society for Human Resources Management in June 2022 continues our series on recruiting methods and practices. There is little doubt that recruiting effort for each open position has intensified in the last year, and firms have had to engage new and different techniques to attract candidates and fill open positions.