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Working Paper
Updated Primer on the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) Model: A Top-Down Stress Test Model
This is an updated technical note describes the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) model, which is a top-down model that helps assess how well the banking system is positioned to weather exogenous macroeconomic shocks. FLARE estimates banking system capital under varying macroeconomic scenarios, time horizons, and other systemic shocks.
Discussion Paper
How Correlated is LIBOR with Bank Funding Costs?
In a recent article in the BIS Quarterly Review, authors Schrimpf and Sushko (2019) provide an overview of the LIBOR transition to risk-free rates led by the FSB Official Sector Steering Group (OSSG). They also argue that rates like LIBOR may be desirable because banks “require a lending benchmark that behaves not too differently from the rates at which they raise funding.”
Working Paper
The Effects of Liquidity Regulation on Bank Demand in Monetary Policy Operations
We estimate the effects of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), a liquidity requirement for banks, on the tenders that banks submit in Term Deposit Facility operations, a Federal Reserve tool created to manage the quantity of bank reserves. We identify these effects using variation in LCR requirements across banks and a change over time that allowed term deposits to count toward the LCR. Banks subject to the LCR submit tenders more often and submit larger tenders than exempt banks when term deposits qualify for the LCR. These results suggest that liquidity regulation affects bank demand in ...
Discussion Paper
How Dynamic is Bank Liquidity, Including when the COVID-19 Pandemic First Set In?
Banks need sufficient liquidity—cash and other assets that may be easily and immediately converted into cash—to meet their financial obligations, such as when households withdraw deposits or businesses tap credit lines. One key takeaway from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 was that continuity of bank intermediation is particularly important in times of stress to limit pressure on the financial system, and that banks need to consistently maintain sufficient liquidity to achieve that outcome.
Discussion Paper
Why Are Net Interest Margins of Large Banks So Compressed?
This note analyzes recent trends in net interest margins (NIMs) at domestic bank holding companies.
Discussion Paper
New Accounting Framework Faces Its First Test: CECL During the Pandemic
On January 1, 2020, most large and mid-sized U.S. banks adopted Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL), a new accounting standard for estimating allowances. Allowance for credit losses is an estimate of the amount that a bank is unlikely to recover from a financial asset.
Discussion Paper
Testing Bank Resiliency Through Time
A resilient banking system meets the demands of households and businesses for financial services during both benign and severe macroeconomic and financial conditions. Banks' ability to weather severe macroeconomic shocks, and their willingness to continue providing financial services, depends on their levels of capital, balance sheet exposures, and ability to generate earnings. This note uses the Forward-Looking Analysis of Risk Events (FLARE) stress testing model to evaluate the resiliency of the banking system by consistently applying severe macroeconomic and financial shocks each quarter ...
Working Paper
Bank Failures, Capital Buffers, and Exposure to the Housing Market Bubble
We empirically document that banks with greater exposure to high home price-to-income ratio regions in 2005 and 2006 have higher mortgage delinquency and charge-off rates and significantly higher probabilities of failure during the last financial crisis even after controlling for capital, liquidity, and other standard bank performance measures. While high price-to-income ratios present a greater likelihood of house price correction, we find no evidence that banks managed this risk by building stronger capital buffers. Our results suggest that there is scope for improved measures of mortgage ...
Working Paper
How Have Banks Been Managing the Composition of High-Quality Liquid Assets?
We study banks' post-crisis liquidity management. We construct time series of U.S. banks' holdings of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) and examine how these assets have been managed in recent years to comply with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirement. We find that, in becoming LCR compliant, banks initially ramped up their stock of reserve balances. However, once the requirement was met, some banks subsequently shifted the compositions of their liquid portfolios significantly. This raises the question: What drives the compositions of banks? HQLA? We show that a risk-return framework ...
Discussion Paper
Assessing the Resiliency of the Banking Industry to a Commercial Real Estate Price Shock
In order to assess the resiliency of the non-Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) bank holding companies (BHCs), this note uses the loan-loss rate information in the public disclosure documents from DFAST 2017 and 2018.