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Discussion Paper
Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil?
Vickery, James; Thomas, Lauren; Velasquez, Ulysses (2016-10-24)
Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20161024

Report
Recent Data on Mortgage Forbearance: Borrower Uptake and Understanding of Lender Accommodations
Lambie-Hanson, Lauren; Vickery, James; Akana, Tom (2021-03-04)
This research brief examines data relating to mortgage forbearance using responses to the January 2021 COVID-19 Survey of Consumers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Consumer Finance Institute. We study a national sample of 1,172 homeowners with mortgages, who reported the current and past forbearance status of their mortgage and other household credit accounts, discussed their familiarity with and understanding of lender accommodations that might be available to them, and provided their demographic characteristics. Respondents characterize their current employment ...
Consumer Finance Institute Research Briefs and Special Reports

Report
Identifying term interbank loans from Fedwire payments data
Kuo, Dennis; Skeie, David R.; Vickery, James; Youle, Thomas (2013)
Interbank markets for term maturities experienced great stress during the 2007-09 financial crisis, as illustrated by the behavior of the one- and three-month Libor. Despite widespread interest in these markets, little data is available on dollar interbank lending for maturities beyond overnight. We develop a methodology to infer information about individual term dollar interbank loans settled through the Fedwire Funds Service, the large-value bank payment system operated by the Federal Reserve Banks. We find a sharp increase in the dispersion of inferred term interbank interest rates, a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 603

Journal Article
TBA trading and liquidity in the agency MBS market
Wright, Joshua; Vickery, James (2013-05)
Mortgage-backed securities in the United States are generally traded on a ?to-be-announced,? or TBA, basis. The key feature of a TBA trade is that the identity of the securities to be delivered to the buyer is not specified exactly at the time of the trade, facilitating a liquid forward market. This article describes the main features of the TBA market. It also presents evidence on the liquidity of this market during the financial crisis period. Using variation in TBA eligibility rules, the authors? estimates suggest that the liquidity benefits associated with the TBA market are of the order ...
Economic Policy Review , Volume 19 , Issue May , Pages 1-18

Journal Article
A Structural view of U.S. bank holding companies
Vickery, James; Avraham, Dafna; Selvaggi, Patricia (2012)
Large banking organizations in the United States are generally organized according to a bank holding company (BHC) structure. In this article, we describe the organizational structure of large U.S. bank holding companies and present summary statistics that document the increasing size, complexity, and diversity of these organizations. We also outline the different types of regulatory data filed with the Federal Reserve by U.S. bank holding companies and describe the strengths and weaknesses of these data, as a source for researchers and others interested in these organizations.
Economic Policy Review , Issue 07 , Pages 65-81

Discussion Paper
Do Big Banks Have Lower Operating Costs?
Zhou, Lily; Kovner, Anna; Vickery, James (2014-03-25)
Despite recent financial reforms, there is still widespread concern that large banking firms remain “too big to fail.” As a solution, some reformers advocate capping the size of the largest banking firms. One consideration, however, is that while early literature found limited evidence for economies of scale, recent academic research has found evidence of scale economies in banking, even for the largest banking firms, implying that such caps could impose real costs on the economy. In our contribution to the volume on large and complex banks, we extend this line of research by studying the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 201404325a

Report
The rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Tracy, Joseph; Frame, W. Scott; Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2015-03-01)
We describe and evaluate the measures taken by the U.S. government to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September 2008. We begin by outlining the business model of these two firms and their role in the U.S. housing finance system. Our focus then turns to the sources of financial distress that the firms experienced and the events that ultimately led the government to take action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets. We describe the various resolution options available to policymakers at the time and evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship, and other actions ...
Staff Reports , Paper 719

Report
Defragmenting Markets: Evidence from Agency MBS
Vickery, James; Liu, Haoyang; Song, Zhaogang (2021-05-01)
Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have historically traded in separate forward markets. We study the consequences of this fragmentation, showing that market liquidity endogenously concentrated in Fannie Mae MBS, leading to higher issuance and trading volume, lower transaction costs, higher security prices, and a lower primary market cost of capital for Fannie Mae. We then analyze a change in market design—the Single Security Initiative—which consolidated Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS trading into a single market in June 2019. We find that ...
Staff Reports , Paper 965

Working Paper
How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Willen, Paul S.; Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas; Hizmo, Aurel; Lambie-Hanson, Lauren (2021-05-27)
We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-20

Discussion Paper
What Happens When Regulatory Capital Is Marked to Market?
Vickery, James; Fuster, Andreas (2018-10-11)
Minimum equity capital requirements are a key part of bank regulation. But there is little agreement about the right way to measure regulatory capital. One of the key debates is the extent to which capital ratios should be based on current market values rather than historical ?accrual? values of assets and liabilities. In a new research paper, we investigate the effects of a recent regulatory change that ties regulatory capital directly to the market value of the securities portfolio for some banks.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20181011

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