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Wait, is saving good or bad? the Paradox of thrift
The average saving rate for the typical American household before the recession started in 2007 was 2.9 percent; since then it has risen to 5 percent. Uncertainty about the future was the primary driver for the increase. More saving is a good thing, right? Well, some economists argue it might be detrimental to the overall economy. Given the benefits to individuals, how could this be? This month?s Page One explores this ?paradox of thrift.?
Journal Article
Output and unemployment: how do they relate today?
Fifty years ago, Arthur Okun examined the relationship between output growth and the unemployment rate. The empirical relationship of the resulting ?Okun?s law? has remained largely intact since then, including during the Great Recession. However, while the law does fit our intuition about economic relationships, it should not necessarily be taken to be causal.
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Memphis zone
Journal Article
A report on economic conditions in the Little Rock zone
Newsletter
Time inconsistency: today’s actions = tomorrow’s regrets
Have you ever bought something you really couldn?t afford? You simply swipe your credit card and leave the store with something shiny and new. That instant gratification overpowers any thought of the regret you?ll have when you must start paying off your accumulated debt. Economists call this phenomenon time inconsistency. Read the September 2011 newsletter for some ideas on how to prevent time inconsistency for yourself and your government.
Journal Article
Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics
A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the ...
Journal Article
Okun's law in recession and recovery
The relationship between unemployment and output growth changes during recoveries.
Journal Article
Where there’s a smoking ban, there’s still fire
Since 2001, the pervasiveness of 100-percent smoke-free bans has increased dramatically?from 32 local laws in 2001 to 308 by the end of 2009. The authors use individual-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey to examine the effect of these bans in workplaces, bars, and restaurants on changes in smoking initiation, continuation, and cessation. They find that, relative to increases in cigarette taxes, smoking bans do not appear to be correlated with changes in smokers? behavior.
Journal Article
Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?
Given that Americans still spend a considerable portion of their budget on gasoline (just under 4 percent in 2012), it?s important to understand why gas prices don?t always move in sync with oil prices. The latter are determined in a more-or-less centralized market, but the market for gas is often local, with prices affected by location, season and taxes, among other factors.
Journal Article
Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes
The recent financial crisis helped emphasize the need for measures of financial conditions. In the wake of the crisis, several researchers and institutions?both private sector and central bank?developed measures of financial stress. These measures are intended to capture, among other things, the liquidity in financial markets and potentially forecast changes in real economic conditions. Unfortunately, there is no agreement about which variables should be included in a measure of stress. The authors survey a number of financial stress indexes, comparing the datasets from which they are ...