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Working Paper
The case of the undying debt
The French government currently honors a very unusual debt contract: an annuity that was issued in 1738 and currently yields ?1.20 per year. I tell the story of this unique debt, which serves as an anecdotal but symbolic summary of French public finances since the 18th century.
Newsletter
What’s a penny (or a nickel) really worth?
On December 14, 2006, the United States Mint announced new regulations to limit the melting and exportation of pennies and nickels. The goal is to prevent a shortage of small change in circulation. This article looks at the problem in historical context and suggests solutions.
Working Paper
The evolution of small change
Western Europe was plagued with currency shortages from the 14th to the 19th century, at which time a `standard formula' had been devised to cure the problem. We document the evolution of mon- etary theory, policy experiments and minting tech- nology over the course of six hundred years. In a companion paper, we use a cash-in-advance model of commodity money to provide an analytical frame- work for the problem of small change.
Working Paper
Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics
We review developments in the history of money, banking, and financial intermediation over the last twenty years. We focus on studies of financial development, including the role of regulation and the history of central banking. We also review the literature of banking and financial crises. This area has been largely unaffected by the so-called new econometric methods that seek to prove causality in reduced form settings. We discuss why historical macroeconomics is less amenable to such methods, discuss the underlying concepts of causality, and emphasize that models remain the backbone of our ...
Newsletter
Dollarization in Argentina
Working Paper
A model of commodity money, with applications to Gresham's Law and the debasement puzzle
We develop a model of commodity money and use it to analyze the following two questions motivated by issues in monetary history: What are the conditions under which Gresham's Law holds? And, what are the mechanics of a debasement (lowering the metallic content of coins)? The model contains light and heavy coins, imperfect information, and prices determined via bilateral bargaining. There are equilibria with neither, both, or only one type of coin in circulation. When both circulate, coins may trade by weight or by tale. We discuss the extent to which Gresham's Law holds in the various cases. ...
Newsletter
Americans are not saving: should we worry?
Working Paper
The big problem of small change
Western Europe was plagued with currency shortages from the 14th century, at which a 'standard formula' had been devised to cure the problem. We use a cash-in-advance model of commodity money to define a currency shortage, show that they could develop and persist under commodity money regime, and analyze the role played by each ingredient in the standard formula. A companion paper documents the evolution of monetary theory, monetary experiments and minting technology over the course of six hundred years.
Working Paper
Why Have Interest Rates Fallen Far Below the Return on Capital
Risk-free rates have been falling since the 1980s while the return on capital has not. We analyze these trends in a calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences, designed to encompass many of the "usual suspects'' cited in the debate on secular stagnation. Declining labor force and productivity growth imply a limited decline in real interest rates and deleveraging cannot account for the joint decline in the risk free rate and increase in the risk premium. If we allow for a change in the (perceived) risk to productivity growth to fit the data, we find that the decline in the risk-free rate ...
Working Paper
Expenditures, Earnings, and Net Worth of the Comédie Française, 1723–1793
I study the expenditures of the Comédie française from 1759 to 1793 and the company’s debt from 1723 to 1793. Expenditures were well controlled and changes in venues account for their increase over time. The debt, however, was less controlled, because of the company’s partnership structure and the incentives it created for actors to compensate with debt any shortfall in income due to low tickets sales or delayed payments from the king. I analyze the debt instruments used and the social background of the lenders. I also study the total income of individual actors and the earnings profile ...