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How Much Debt Is Too Much? What History Shows
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2021-10-12)
The U.K. had relatively high levels of public debt in the past 300 years, with its debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 200% at times.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Geographic Dispersion in COVID-19 Death Rates across the United States
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-06-15)
Geographic dispersion in the share of African Americans likely accounts for the dispersion of COVID-19-related deaths.
Economic Synopses , Issue 36

Working Paper
Battles and Diseases in the U.S. Civil War
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2024-09)
Wars create short-term fluctuations in mortality. Belligerents might mitigate their own casualties with larger armies that hinder their opponent’s fighting ability. But diseases are frequent in wars and, thus, may reduce the benefits of larger armies. First, I analyze these competing mechanisms in a dynamic model of wartime attrition. Second, I calibrate the model using U.S. Civil War data and find that if the Union had fielded a 50%-larger army in 1861, Union casualties would have been marginally lower. The theory provides the insight for this quantitative result.
Working Papers , Paper 2024-032

Working Paper
On the Economic Mechanics of Warfare
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2024-07)
How do war-related expenditures affect economically-relevant outcomes at a war’s conclusion (e.g., prevailing side, duration, and casualties)? I present a model of attrition and characterize the effects of resources at a military conclusion (one side cannot fight anymore) and a political conclusion (one side quits). I analyze the Pacific War through the lenses of the model both theoretically and empirically. I find that a parsimonious parameterization reproduces well the aggregate patterns of destruction, measured in ship tonnage, for both belligerents.
Working Papers , Paper 2023-007

Reopening the U.S.: Gauging the Trend of COVID-19 Transmissions
Mather, Ryan; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Ravikumar, B. (2020-04-28)
An analysis suggests that counties accounting for the vast bulk of U.S. GDP aren’t yet seeing a downward trajectory in COVID-19 cases, but growth rates have generally slowed.
On the Economy

For Poor Countries, Gains in Education Are Not Matched in Income
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Peake, Makenzie (2020-09-15)
Poor countries are narrowing the education gap with rich countries, but not the gap in GDP per capita.
On the Economy

Journal Article
The COVID-19 New Business Boom
Yin, Victoria; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2022-03-21)
Business applications increased across all sectors in the 12 months after February 2020, but the retail trade sector saw the largest increase.
Economic Synopses , Issue 6 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Perspectives on U.S. Media Coverage of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2021-11-23)
How have the U.S. media covered the evolution of COVID-19? This article discusses a working paper about media negativity during the pandemic.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Parents, Patience, and Persistence: A Novel Theory of Intergenerational College Attainment
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2025-02-03)
We present a novel theory of intergenerational persistence in college attainment that does not rely on credit constraints, parental transfers and investments, or persistence in innate ability. The gist of our theory is heterogeneity in time preferences, which are endogenous since parents can teach patience to their children before the children make their college decisions. We show, analytically, that the most patient parents are simultaneously more likely to have a college degree and to educate their children to be patient. Persistence follows. We also show that persistence occurs if and only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-003

Working Paper
Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting
Fuller, David L.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume; Auray, Stéphane (2021-08)
We document three facts: (i) Higher educated workers are more likely to moonlight; (ii) conditional on education, workers with higher wages are less likely to moonlight; and (iii) the prevalence of moonlighting is declining over time for all education groups. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to explain these patterns. A dominating income effect explains the negative correlation of moonlighting with productivity in the cross section and the downward trend over time. A higher part-to-full time pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-016

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