Search Results
Working Paper
Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent ...
Working Paper
Declining job security
Although common belief and recent evidence point to a decline in "job security," the academic literature to date has been noticeably silent regarding the behavioral underpinnings of declining job security. In this paper, I define job security in the context of implicit contracts designed to overcome incentive problems in the employment relationship. Contracts of this nature imply the possibility of inefficient separations in response to adverse shocks, and they generate predictions concerning the relationship between job security parameters-such as worker seniority, aggregate shocks, and ...
Journal Article
Will labor force participation bounce back?
The most recent U.S. recession and recovery have been accompanied by a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. The largest declines have occurred in states with the largest job losses. This suggests that some of the recent drop in the national labor force participation rate could be cyclical. Past recoveries show evidence of a similar cyclical relationship between changes in employment and participation, which could portend a moderation or reversal of the participation decline as the current recovery continues.
Journal Article
Recent trends in unemployment duration
Journal Article
Recent research on job stability and security
Journal Article
Extended unemployment in California
Working Paper
The effect of extended unemployment insurance benefits: evidence from the 2012-2013 phase-out
Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Great Recession, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by ...
Working Paper
Lost in translation? teacher training and outcomes in high school economics classes
Using data on 24 teachers and 982 students from a 2006 survey of California high school economics classes, we assess the effects of student and teacher characteristics on student achievement. We estimate value-added models of outcomes on multiple choice and essay exams, with matched classroom pairs for each teacher enabling random effects and fixed-effects estimation. Students? own and peer GPAs and their attitudes towards economics have the largest effects on value-added scores. We also find a substantial impact of specialized teacher experience and college-level coursework in economics, ...
Working Paper
The Economic Status of People with Disabilities and their Families since the Great Recession
People with disabilities face substantial barriers to sustained employment and stable, adequateincome. We assess how they and their families fared during the long economic expansion thatfollowed the Great Recession of 2007-09, using data from the monthly Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) and the March CPS annual income supplement. We find that the expansionbolstered the well-being of people with disabilities and in particular their relative labor marketengagement. We also find that applications and awards for federal disability benefits fell duringthe expansion. On balance, our results suggest ...
Journal Article
The computer evolution
In this Economic Letter, we use data from five special surveys, covering the period 1984-2001, to examine two key aspects of the computer evolution: the spread of PCs at work and the evolving wage differentials between individuals who use them and those who do not. Although the spread of computers has been relatively uniform across labor force groups, the wage returns associated with computers tilted sharply in favor of the highly educated at the end of our sample frame. This finding appears consistent with the increase in trend productivity growth that occurred around the same time.