Search Results
Journal Article
A Strong Labor Market Has Narrowed Gaps in Participation and Employment between Black and White Non-College Men
Black and Hispanic workers faced disproportionately larger declines in labor force participation than white workers during the pandemic-led recession. This gap appears consistent with previous recessions: the labor market outcomes of racial and ethnic minorities tend to deteriorate more than those of white workers during recessions, widening gaps in participation, employment, and wages during downturns. However, the labor market has since recovered, with employment rising above pre-pandemic levels. Have gaps in labor market outcomes between Black and white workers narrowed?Didem Tüzemen and ...
Journal Article
Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men (age 25 to 54) has declined dramatically in the United States since the 1960s, but the decline accelerated more recently. In 1996, 4.6 million prime-age men did not participate in the labor force. By 2016, this number had risen to 7.1 million. Better understanding these men and the personal situations preventing them from working may be crucial in evaluating whether they are likely to return to the labor force. {{p}} Didem Tzemen documents changes in the nonparticipation rates of prime-age men with different demographic characteristics as ...
Working Paper
Health-care reform or labor market reform? a quantitative analysis of the Affordable Care Act
An equilibrium model with ?rm and worker heterogeneity is constructed to analyze labor market and welfare implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Our model implies a signi?cant reduction in the uninsured rate from 22.6 percent to 5.6 percent. {{p}} The model predicts a moderate positive welfare gain from the ACA, due to redistribution of income through Health Insurance Subsidies at the Exchange as well as Medicaid expansion. About 2.1 million more part-time jobs are created under the ACA, in expense of 1.6 million full-time jobs, mainly because the link between ...
Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Working Paper
Under-investment in state capacity: the role of inequality and political instability
Existing studies have shown that the state's ability to tax, also known as fiscal capacity, is positively related to economic development. In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the government's decision to invest in state capacity, which involves a trade-off between present consumption and the ability to collect more taxes in the future. Using a model, we highlight some political and economic dimensions of this decision and conclude that political stability, democracy, income inequality, as well as the valuation of public goods relative to private goods, are important variables to ...
Journal Article
Trends in the Labor Share Post-2000
The labor share of income declined sharply in the United States from 2000 to 2010 but seems to have stabilized since 2010. We examine aggregate trends in the labor share and show that the 2000?10 decline was driven by declines in the fraction of income paid to workers in all industries. The stabilization in the labor share after 2010 mostly reflects an increased share of services industries income paid to workers.
Working Paper
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies
We estimate the impact of minimum-wage increases on the quantity of labor demanded as measured by firms’ vacancy postings. We use propriety, county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online database. Our identification relies on the disproportionate effects of minimum-wage hikes on different occupations, as the wage distribution around the binding minimum wage differs by occupation. We find that minimum-wage increases during the 2005-2018 period have led to substantial declines in vacancy postings in at-risk occupations, occupations with a larger share of ...
Journal Article
Does health care reform support self-employment?
Didem Tzemen and Thealexa Becker study the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act and find the reform may have supported self-employment in the state.
Working Paper
The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Force Participation
We document that labor force participation declines in the short run following a positive technology shock. The countercyclical response of labor force participation to a technology shock contrasts with the well documented mild procyclical behavior of labor force participation in the business cycle. In a search model of the labor market that incorporates a participation choice, we show that a positive technology shock reduces labor force participation in the short run under a reasonable calibration. In the calibrated model, discount factor shocks induce a procyclical response of labor force ...
Journal Article
Women Are Driving the Recent Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation
The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. While the rate remains below its pre-recession level, it has been increasing steadily since 2015. We examine how different demographic groups have contributed to this rebound and find that college-educated women have made the largest contribution to the recent recovery in the prime-age labor force participation rate.