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Working Paper
Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2022-08-01)
This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-22

Report
Exchange rates and local labor markets
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tracy, Joseph (1999)
We document the consequences of real exchange rate movements for the employment, hours, and hourly earnings of workers in manufacturing industries across individual states. Exchange rates have statistically significant wage and employment implications in these local labor markets. The importance and size of these dollar-induced effects vary considerably across industries and are more pronounced in some U.S. regions. In addition to demonstrating the importance of exchange rate shocks, we confirm prior research results showing that relatively strong local conditions drive up wages in local ...
Staff Reports , Paper 63

Journal Article
The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s
Tracy, Joseph; Mehran, Hamid (2001-12)
Between 1995 and 1998, actual growth in compensation per hour (CPH) accelerated from approximately 2 percent to 5 percent. Yet as the labor market continued to tighten in 1999, CPH growth unexpectedly slowed. This article explores whether this aggregate "wage puzzle" can be explained by changes in the pay structure?specifically, by the increased use of employee stock options in the 1990s. The CPH measure captures these options on their exercise date, rather than on the date they are granted. By recalculating compensation per hour to reflect the options' value on the grant date, the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 17-34

Discussion Paper
How COVID-19 Affected First-Time Homebuyers
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph (2021-04-12)
Efforts in the spring of 2020 to contain the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a sharp contraction in U.S. economic growth and an unprecedented, rapid rise in unemployment. While the first wave of the pandemic slowed the spring housing market, home sales rebounded sharply over the rest of the year, with strong gains in house prices. Given the rising house prices and continuing high unemployment, concerns arose that COVID-19 may have negatively affected first-time homebuyers. Using a new and more accurate measure of first-time homebuyers, we find that these buyers have not been adversely affected ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210412

Large, Dominant Firms Depress Local Wages; Housing Costs Help Offset Lower Pay
Tracy, Joseph; Kahn, Matthew E. (2020-01-07)
Concern has increased about the ability of very large firms to exert market power and hold down wages in localities where they dominate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
Housing busts and household mobility: an update
Tracy, Joseph; Gyourko, Joseph; Ferreira, Fernando (2011)
This paper provides updated estimates of the impact of three financial frictions?negative equity, mortgage lock-in, and property tax lock-in?on household mobility. We add the 2009 wave of the American Housing Survey (AHS) to our sample and also create an improved measure of permanent moves in response to Schulhofer-Wohl?s (2011) critique of our earlier work (2010). Our updated estimates corroborate our previous results: Negative equity reduces household mobility by 30 percent, and $1,000 of additional mortgage or property tax costs reduces household mobility by 10 to 16 percent. ...
Staff Reports , Paper 526

More Workers Find Their Wages Falling Even Further Behind Inflation
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Krohn, Mason (2022-10-04)
While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
Spotlight: Black Workers at Risk for 'Last Hired, First Fired'
Tracy, Joseph; Jones, Aquil (2020)
The COVID–19-induced global economic downturn shuttered businesses that have begun slowly reopening and reassessing whether to recall laid-off employees. In the U.S., black unemployment rates have spiked much more than white jobless rates during recessions.
Southwest Economy , Issue Second Quarter

Report
Gender differences in the labor market effects of the dollar
Goldberg, Linda S.; Tracy, Joseph (2001-04-01)
Although the dollar has been shown to influence the expected wages of workers, the analysis to date has focused on the male workforce. We show that exchange rate fluctuations also have important implications for women's wages. The dominant wage effects for women?like those for men?arise at times of job transition. Changes in the value of the dollar can cause the wage gap between women who change jobs and women who stay on in their jobs to expand or contract sharply, with the most pronounced effects occurring among the least educated women and women in highly competitive manufacturing ...
Staff Reports , Paper 121

Discussion Paper
First-Time Buyers Were Undeterred by Rapid Home Price Appreciation in 2021
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph (2022-05-12)
Tight inventories of homes for sale combined with strong demand pushed up national house prices by an eye-popping 19 percent, year over year, in January 2022. This surge in house prices created concerns that first-time buyers would increasingly be priced out of owning a home. However, using our Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized Equifax credit report data, we find that the share of purchase mortgages going to first-time buyers actually increased slightly from 2020 to 2021.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220512

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