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Speech
The shape of the recovery
Tracy, Joseph (2011)
Remarks at the Connecticut Business and Industry Association/MetroHartford Alliance Economic Summit and Outlook 2011, Hartford, Connecticut
Speech , Paper 40

Report
Early contract renegotiation: An analysis of U.S. labor contracts from 1970 to 1995
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2011)
This paper examines the ex post flexibility of U.S. labor contracts during the 1970-95 period by investigating whether unanticipated changes in inflation increase the likelihood of a contract being renegotiated prior to its expiration. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. Specifically, our results indicate that renegotiations are triggered principally by large and infrequent price shocks of either sign. When combined with evidence that ex ante contract durations are shorter during episodes of increased inflation uncertainty, our results suggest that these contracts are ...
Staff Reports , Paper 521

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W. (2019-12-17)
In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.
Dallas Fed Economics

Journal Article
The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s
Tracy, Joseph; Mehran, Hamid (2001-12)
Between 1995 and 1998, actual growth in compensation per hour (CPH) accelerated from approximately 2 percent to 5 percent. Yet as the labor market continued to tighten in 1999, CPH growth unexpectedly slowed. This article explores whether this aggregate "wage puzzle" can be explained by changes in the pay structure?specifically, by the increased use of employee stock options in the 1990s. The CPH measure captures these options on their exercise date, rather than on the date they are granted. By recalculating compensation per hour to reflect the options' value on the grant date, the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Dec , Pages 17-34

Report
Real estate investors, the leverage cycle, and the housing market crisis
Lee, Donghoon; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F. (2011)
We explore a mostly undocumented but important dimension of the housing market crisis: the role played by real estate investors. Using unique credit-report data, we document large increases in the share of purchases, and subsequently delinquencies, by real estate investors. In states that experienced the largest housing booms and busts, at the peak of the market almost half of purchase mortgage originations were associated with investors. In part by apparently misreporting their intentions to occupy the property, investors took on more leverage, contributing to higher rates of default. Our ...
Staff Reports , Paper 514

Report
Uncertainty and labor contract durations
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph (2000)
This paper provides an empirical investigation into the relationship between ex ante U.S. labor contract durations and uncertainty over the period 1970 to 1995. We construct measures of inflation uncertainty as well as aggregate nominal and real uncertainty. The results not only corroborate previous findings of an inverse relationship between contract durations and inflation uncertainty, but also document that this relationship extends to both measures of aggregate uncertainty. We also explore the robustness of this relationship to various measures of inflation uncertainty that have appeared ...
Staff Reports , Paper 106

Report
A new look at second liens
Lee, Donghoon; Tracy, Joseph; Mayer, Christopher J. (2012)
We use data from credit reports and deed records to better understand the extent to which second liens contributed to the housing crisis by allowing buyers to purchase homes with small down-payments. At the top of the housing market, second liens were quite prevalent: As many as 45 percent of home purchases in coastal markets and bubble locations involved a piggyback second lien. Owner-occupants were more likely to use piggyback second liens than were investors. Second liens in the form of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) were originated to relatively high-quality borrowers, and ...
Staff Reports , Paper 569

Discussion Paper
Did Tax Reform Raise the Cost of Owning a Home?
Tracy, Joseph; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Gilbukh, Sonia; Landau, Rebecca (2019-04-17)
The 2018 slowdown in the housing market has been a subject of intense interest to the press and policymakers, including articles reporting a slowing in house price growth and a decline in home construction. Today we follow up on our colleagues' research on whether the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) has contributed to a slowdown in the housing market, looking closely at what price signals tell us about the trade-off between owning and renting.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190417

Journal Article
Long-term outcomes of FHA first-time homebuyers
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon (2018-24-03)
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which insures mortgages for low- to moderate-income homebuyers, has stated that its goal is to foster sustainable homeownership. This study proposes metrics for evaluating the degree to which the FHA has succeeded in this mission for an important program constituency, first-time homebuyers. The approach uses data from the New York Fed?s Consumer Credit Panel, a data source that makes it possible to observe new mortgage borrowers? long-term outcomes. The findings presented in sample scorecards show, for example, that in the 2001 and 2002 cohorts, 55 ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue 24-3 , Pages 145-165

Whose Wages Are Falling Behind the Least amid Surging Inflation?
Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph; Krohn, Mason (2022-10-18)
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
Dallas Fed Economics

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