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Report
Expectations of inflation: the biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Topa, Giorgio; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (2011)
National surveys follow consumers' expectations of future inflation, because they may directly affect the economic choices they make, indirectly affect macroeconomic outcomes, and be considered in monetary policy. Yet relatively little is known about how individuals form the inflation expectations they report on consumer surveys. Medians of reported inflation expectations tend to track official estimates of realized inflation, but show large disagreement between respondents, due to some expecting seemingly extreme inflation. We present two studies to examine whether individuals who consider ...
Staff Reports , Paper 489

Discussion Paper
Searching for Higher Wages
Kapon, Samuel; Topa, Giorgio; Pilossoph, Laura; Sahin, Aysegul; Armona, Luis (2015-09-02)
Since the peak of the recession, the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 5 percentage points, and observers continue to focus on whether and when this decline will lead to robust wage growth. Typically, in the wake of such a decline, real wages grow since there is more competition for workers among potential employers. While this relationship has historically been quite informative, real wage growth more recently has not been commensurate with observed declines in the unemployment rate.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20150902

Discussion Paper
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experiences of U.S. Workers
Topa, Giorgio; Karahan, Fatih; Chalom, Rene; Moore, Brendan (2020-03-04)
The growth rate of hourly earnings is a widely used indicator to assess the economic progress of U.S. workers, as well as the health of the labor market. It is also a measure of wage pressures that could potentially spill over into inflationary pressures in a tightening labor market. Hourly earnings growth, on average, has gradually risen over the course of the current expansion, under way since the end of the Great Recession. But how have different groups of workers fared in this regard? Have hourly earnings risen uniformly at all points of the wage distribution, or have some segments of the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200304b

Report
Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
Manski, Charles F.; Topa, Giorgio; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2009)
Survey measures of consumer inflation expectations have an important shortcoming in that, while providing useful summary measures of the distribution of point forecasts across individuals, they contain no direct information about an individual's uncertainty about future inflation. The latter is important not only for forecasting inflation and other macroeconomic outcomes, but also for assessing a central bank's credibility and effectiveness of communication. This paper explores the feasibility of eliciting individual consumers' subjective probability distributions of future inflation ...
Staff Reports , Paper 415

Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Adjust Prices in a High Inflation Environment?
Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-06-02)
How do firms set prices? What factors do they consider, and to what extent are cost increases passed through to prices? While these are important questions in general, they become even more salient during periods of high inflation. In this blog post, we highlight preliminary results from ongoing research on firms’ price-setting behavior, a joint project between researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York. We use a combination of open-ended interviews and a quantitative survey in our analysis. Firms reported that the strength of demand was the most important ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230602

Report
The Curious Case of the Rise in Deflation Expectations
Somerville, Jason; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio; Koşar, Gizem; Williams, John C.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2022-10-01)
We study the behavior of U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-23 using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. Inflation expectations rose and fell as inflation surged and then moderated, but with notable differences across forecast horizons. Inflation uncertainty and disagreement also rose markedly and then abated. Despite the sharp rise in inflation, we see a sizable increase in the left tail of the distribution of medium- and longer-term expectations and increased expectations of deflation. Using a pair of special ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1037

Discussion Paper
Nudging Inflation Expectations: An Experiment
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Nelson, Scott; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2012-11-05)
Managing consumers? inflation expectations is of critical importance to central banks in the conduct of monetary policy. But managing inflation expectations requires more than just monitoring expectations; it also requires an understanding of how these expectations are formed. In this post, we present results from a new study that investigates how individual consumers use selected information on food prices in forming their inflation expectations. While the provision of this information leads individuals to meaningfully revise expectations of their own-basket inflation rate, we find there is ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20121105

Discussion Paper
How Widespread Is the Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Consumer Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Pomerantz, Rachel; Skandalis, Daphne; Smith, Kyle; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-04-16)
In a recent blog post, we showed that consumer expectations worsened sharply through March, as the COVID-19 epidemic spread and affected a growing part of the U.S. population. In this post, we document how much of this deterioration can be directly attributed to the coronavirus outbreak. We then explore how the effect of the outbreak has varied over time and across demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200416b

Discussion Paper
New SCE Charts Include a Measure of Longer-Term Inflation Expectations
Aidala, Felix; Armantier, Olivier; Boumahdi, Fatima-Ezzahra; Koşar, Gizem; Lall, Devon; Somerville, Jason; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2022-10-11)
Today, the New York Fed introduces several new data series and interactive charts depicting findings from its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The SCE is a representative, internet-based monthly survey of a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads in the United States. Since January 2014, we have been reporting findings from our monthly survey on U.S. households’ views on inflation, household income and spending growth, their expectations about the housing and labor market, and a range of other expectations about the economy and outcomes for their own household. In addition to ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20221011

Working Paper
Estimates of Cost-Price Passthrough from Business Survey Data
Dogra, Keshav; Heise, Sebastian; Knotek, Edward S.; Meyer, Brent; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi (2023-06-02)
We examine businesses' price-setting practices via open-ended interviews and in a quantitative survey module with business contacts from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Cleveland, and New York in December 2022 and January 2023. Businesses indicated that their prices were strongly influenced by demand, a desire to maintain steady profit margins, and wages and labor costs. Survey respondents expected reduced growth in costs and prices of about 5 percent on average over the next year. Backward-looking, forward-looking, and hypothetical scenarios reveal average cost-price passthrough of ...
Working Papers , Paper 23-14

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