Search Results
Journal Article
Forecasting and modeling the U.S. economy in 1986-88
Journal Article
As the nation's economy goes, so goes Minnesota's
Working Paper
Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions
Conference Paper
Improving evaluation and metrics in youth financial education
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Take Charge America Institute at the University of Arizona, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis invited a small group of researchers and practitioners to discuss how to improve the evaluation and metrics of youth financial education programs. The meeting focused specifically on youth ? which we defined as individuals under the age of 25 ? in an effort to distinguish this effort from others that have discussed financial education research more broadly. The goal for the meeting was to help create a research agenda that would move the field ...
Report
Targeting foreclosure interventions: an analysis of neighborhood characteristics associated with high foreclosure rates in two Minnesota counties
This study examines the statistical association of foreclosure sales with social, economic and housing variables measured at the Census tract level for two purposes of interest to foreclosure mitigation practitioners - to assess whether it is feasible to identify in advance neighborhoods likely to have high rates of foreclosure, and to explore the socioeconomic traits of high-foreclosure neighborhoods so as to design appropriate mitigation programs. We collected data on foreclosure sales in 2002 from the sheriffs departments of Hennepin and Ramsey counties, the two core counties that comprise ...
Working Paper
Algorithms for explaining forecast revisions
Forecasts are routinely revised, and these revisions are often the subject of informal analysis and discussion. This paper argues (1) that forecast revisions are analyzed because they help forecasters and forecast users to evaluate forecasts and forecasting procedures, and (2) that these analyses can be sharpened by using the forecasting model to systematically express its forecast revision as the sum of components identified with specific subsets of new information, such as data revisions and forecast errors. An algorithm for this purpose is explained and illustrated.
Report
A case for post-purchase support programs as part of Minnesota's emerging markets homeownership initiative
The State of Minnesotas Emerging Markets Homeownership Initiative (EMHI) seeks to boost homeownership rates among Minnesotas emerging markets, defined as households of color, non-English speaking households, and households in which English is a second language. Many of the implementation strategies in the EMHI Business Plan address general barriers to homeownership and should increase the number of emerging market households that become first-time homeowners. EMHI doesnt stop there, however. It also recognizes the need to sustain homeownership after initial purchase, in keeping with growing ...
Journal Article
Financial literacy education: a potential tool for reducing predatory lending?
A review of studies on the effectiveness of financial literacy training and whether such training results in responsible financial decision making by consumers.
Journal Article
Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate
This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' ...
Conference Paper
Effectiveness of online early intervention financial education programs for credit-card holders
As part of The Saint Paul Foundation?s Credit Card Project, three credit card issuers conducted randomized tests of whether offering online credit card education to credit cardholders is effective in changing behavior. The targeted populations were either new cardholders or cardholders reaching the point of first delinquency, and two of the tests involved college students. Completion of online credit education correlates with more responsible credit card usage, but the experiments don?t prove that the education causes this behavior. Experiments with college student cardholders by Wells Fargo ...