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Author:Todd, Richard M. 

Journal Article
Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression

Quarterly Review , Volume 8 , Issue Fall

Working Paper
Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions

Working Papers , Paper 384

Report
Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality

Optimal linear regulator methods are used to represent a class of models of endogenous equilibrium seasonality that has so far received little attention. Seasonal structure is built into these models in either of two equivalent ways: periodically varying the coefficient matrices of a formerly nonseasonal problem or embedding this periodic-coefficient problem in a higher-dimensional sparse system whose time-invariant matrices have a special pattern of zero blocks. The former structure is compact and convenient computationally; the latter can be used to apply familiar convergence results from ...
Staff Report , Paper 127

Journal Article
Vector autoregression evidence on monetarism: another look at the robustness debate

This paper is a case study of the use of vector autoregression (VAR) models to test economic theories. It focuses on the work of Christopher A. Sims, who in 1980 found that relationships in economic data generated by a small VAR model were inconsistent with those implied by a simple form of monetarist theory. The paper describes the work of researchers who criticized Sims' results as not robust and Sims' response to these critics. The paper reexamines all of this work by estimating hundreds of variations of Sims' model. The paper concludes that both Sims and his critics are right: Sims' ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Spr , Pages 19-37

Journal Article
Financial literacy education: a potential tool for reducing predatory lending?

A review of studies on the effectiveness of financial literacy training and whether such training results in responsible financial decision making by consumers.
The Region , Volume 16 , Issue Dec. , Pages 6-9, 34-36

Conference Paper
Improving evaluation and metrics in youth financial education

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Take Charge America Institute at the University of Arizona, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis invited a small group of researchers and practitioners to discuss how to improve the evaluation and metrics of youth financial education programs. The meeting focused specifically on youth ? which we defined as individuals under the age of 25 ? in an effort to distinguish this effort from others that have discussed financial education research more broadly. The goal for the meeting was to help create a research agenda that would move the field ...
Proceedings , Issue July

Report
Accounting for regional migration patterns and homeownership disparities in the Hmong-American refugee community, 1980-2000

Hmong refugees began arriving in significant numbers in the United States in the late 1970s. Compared to typical immigrants, Hmong-Americans came with few financial, labor market, or co-ethnic support factors in favor of their economic success in the United States. Focusing on homeownership as an indicator of economic assimilation, we show that indeed the overall Hmong-American homeownership rate was initially very low but had converged, by 2000, to a level typical for U.S. immigrants of equivalent time in country. Over the same period, however, wide regional gaps in Hmong-American ...
Community Affairs Report , Paper 2008-1

Journal Article
Should currency be priced like cars?

Quarterly Review , Volume 8 , Issue Spr

Journal Article
Time to plan and aggregate fluctuations

This article investigates the business cycle implications of the planning phase of business investment projects. Time to plan is built into a Kydland-Prescott time-to-build model, which assumes that investment projects take four periods to complete. In the Kydland-Prescott time-to-build model, resources for these projects flow uniformly across the four periods; in the time-to-plan model, few resources are used in the first period. The investigation determines that incorporating time to plan in this way improves the model's ability to account for three key features of U.S. business cycles: ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 20 , Issue Win , Pages 14-27

Journal Article
More growth ahead for Ninth District states

Quarterly Review , Volume 8 , Issue Fall

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