Search Results
Briefing
How Data Revisions and Uncertainty Affect Monetary Policy
Important macroeconomic data are often revised, and initial releases are subject to sometimes large measurement errors.The size of the data revisions has declined over time for most key series, but discrepancies between initial and final data for some variables are not random.This creates a problem for policymakers, since they need to make decisions in real time while not knowing the true state of the economy.
Briefing
Is There an Upward Trend in Productivity?
Different productivity measures capture different structural forces, with utilization-adjusted TFP providing a clearer signal of underlying productivity.Trend productivity growth declined through the mid-2010s but has since increased across multiple measures.Recent data suggest continued growth in labor productivity, while TFP growth appears to be stabilizing.
Working Paper
U.S. Import Tariffs in 2025: Realized Tariff Rates, Import Prices, and Local Labor-Market Effects
This paper analyzes the effect of the 2025 U.S. import tariffs on import prices and local labor-markets. To that end, we use highly disaggregated customs data to construct realized tariff rates from actual duty collections, rather than announced statutory schedules. An important contribution is that we document a large and persistent gap between the two measures, driven by within-country product reallocation, cross-country sourcing shifts, and implementation frictions. This implies that statutory rates are a poor proxy for the trade shock that firms actually faced. Using realized tariffs, we ...