Discussion Paper
Indicator and filter attributes of monetary aggregates: a nit-picking case for disaggregation
Tinsley, Peter A.; Spindt, Paul A.; Friar, M. E. (1980)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 140

Working Paper
Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts
Tinsley, Peter A.; Kozicki, Sharon (1996)
Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run "endpoints"---fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of "moving endpoint" time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-47

Working Paper
Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules
Tinsley, Peter A. (1993)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 93-21

Discussion Paper
On distributed lag specifications of optimal factor adjustment paths
Tinsley, Peter A. (1970)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 10

Discussion Paper
On ramps, turnpikes, and distributed lag approximations of optimal intertemporal adjustment
Tinsley, Peter A. (1971)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 15

Discussion Paper
On the use of optimal control in the design of monetary policy
Tinsley, Peter A.; Kalchbrenner, John H. (1976)
Special Studies Papers , Paper 76

Journal Article
The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?
Mauskopf, Eileen; Fuhrer, Jeffrey C.; Tinsley, Peter A. (1990-12)
Federal Reserve Bulletin , Issue Dec

Working Paper
Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty
Tinsley, Peter A. (1998)
The term structure of interest rates is the primary transmission channel of monetary policy. Under the expectations hypothesis, anticipated settings of the short-term interest rate controlled by the central bank are the main determinants of nominal bond rates. Historical experience suggests that bond rates may remain relatively high even if the short-term interest rate is reduced to zero, in part due to term premiums reflecting uncertainty about future policy. Term spreads due to policy uncertainty may be reduced by central bank trading desk options that provide insurance against future ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1999-14

Working Paper
Vector rational error correction
Tinsley, Peter A.; Kozicki, Sharon (1998)
Systems of forward-looking linear decision rules can be formulated as vector "rational" error correction models. The closed-form solution of the restricted error corrections is derived, and a full-information estimator is suggested. The error correction format indicates that the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and rational expectations impose different types of a priori restrictions on the dynamic structure of the error corrections. An empirical model of the producer decision rule for capital investment illustrates that the data rejects dynamic restrictions imposed by a standard ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-03

Working Paper
The long and short of industrial strength pricing
Kan, William; Tinsley, Peter A.; Krieger, Reva (1989)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 99