Search Results
Journal Article
Impact of current fiscal policy
Journal Article
Tax reform and aggregate spending
Working Paper
A generalized uncovered interest parity model of real exchange rates
Sticky price monetary models of the real exchange rate, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the statistical association between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate differential. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be important. These are productivity growth that changes the relative price of traded goods at home versus abroad, government budget deficits, and the real price of oil. ; These ...
Working Paper
A macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy
Journal Article
The Federal budget deficit, saving and investment, and growth
Journal Article
Money, prices, and interest rates
Journal Article
Consumer sentiment: its causes and effects
This paper finds that consumer attitudes, as reflected in surveys of consumer sentiment, have a significant influence on household purchases of durable goods. Normally, consumer sentiment moves with current economic conditions and bears a stable relationship to a few economic variables. At times of a major economic or political event like the Gulf War, however, consumer sentiment can move independently from current economic conditions. At such times it provides useful information about future consumer expenditures that is not otherwise available.
Journal Article
U.S. budget deficits and the real value of the dollar
Journal Article
An evaluation of alternative measures of expected inflation