Search Results
Journal Article
Three views of real interest
Journal Article
Consumer confidence and the outlook for consumer spending
Journal Article
The Gulf War and the U.S. economy
Journal Article
Linkages of national interest rates
Journal Article
Gauging fiscal policy: II
Journal Article
The burden of Reagan debt
Journal Article
A generalized uncovered interest parity model of exchange rates
Sticky price monetary models of exchange rates, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. Out-of-sample predictions have been little or no better than those from a naive model of no change. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the association between exchange rates and the real interest rate differentials. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be empirically important. These are productivity growth, which changes the relative price of traded goods ...
Journal Article
Alternative leading economic indicators
Working Paper
A structural model of real aggregate demand
Working Paper
A generalized uncovered interest parity model of real exchange rates
Sticky price monetary models of the real exchange rate, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the statistical association between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate differential. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be important. These are productivity growth that changes the relative price of traded goods at home versus abroad, government budget deficits, and the real price of oil. ; These ...