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Working Paper
A new inflation in the 1970s?
Working Paper
A structural model of real aggregate demand
Working Paper
A generalized uncovered interest parity model of real exchange rates
Sticky price monetary models of the real exchange rate, while reasonable theoretically, have been disappointing empirically. The most likely reason is that shocks to the market's expectation of the future equilibrium real exchange rate weaken the stability of the statistical association between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate differential. This study identifies three types of shocks that appear to be important. These are productivity growth that changes the relative price of traded goods at home versus abroad, government budget deficits, and the real price of oil. ; These ...
Working Paper
A macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy
Working Paper
A macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy
Journal Article
Three views of real interest
Journal Article
Comparing inflation forecasts
Journal Article
The Federal budget deficit, saving and investment, and growth
Journal Article
Money, prices, and interest rates
Journal Article
The lonesome twin