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Working Paper
Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?
This paper puts the issue of monetary policy transparency into a broad economic perspective. In so doing, it narrows the focus from that which frequently appears in this literature. The analysis is predicated on the assertion that the sole economic argument for transparency is policy effectiveness-transparency is desirable if it enhances the effectiveness of policy and is not, if it does not. In cases where transparency neither enhances nor impairs the effectiveness of policy, the case for transparency can be argued on non-economic grounds. This analysis has implications for several ...
Journal Article
A primer on the mortgage market and mortgage finance
This article is a primer on mortgage finance. It discusses the basics of the mortgage market and mortgage finance. In so doing, it provides useful information that can aid individuals in making better mortgage finance decisions. The discussion and the tools are presented within the context of mortgage finance; however, these same principles and tools can be applied to a wide range of financial decisions.
Journal Article
Solving the 1980s' velocity puzzle: a progress report
Working Paper
The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs
Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. We argue that our analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with the weaker ...
Journal Article
Core versus headline inflation again
Neither core nor headline inflation measures can consistently and reliably predict medium-term inflation well enough to be of much use to policymakers.>
Journal Article
Do government deficits matter?
Journal Article
Identifying the liquidity effect at the daily frequency
Journal Article
Alternative policy weapons?
Working Paper
The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us
The Phillips curve framework, which includes the output gap and natural rate hypothesis, plays a central role in the canonical macroeconomic model used in analyses of monetary policy. It is now well understood that real-time data must be used to evaluate historical monetary policy. We believe that it is equally important that macroeconomic models used to evaluate historical monetary policy reflect the framework that policymakers used to formulate that policy. To that end, we use the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) transcripts to examine the role that the Phillips curve framework played ...