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Working Paper
Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty
In his 1999 monograph The Conquest of American Inflation Tom Sargent describes how a policymaker, who applies a constant-gain algorithm in estimating the Phillips curve, can fall into the grip of an induction problem: concluding on the basis of reduced-form evidence that the trade-off between inflation and output is more favorable than it actually is. This results in oscillations between periods of disinflation and reflation. The problem arises because the policymaker is naive about possible misspecification, her role in creating that misspecification, and its role in policy design. In ...
Discussion Paper
The Monetary Policy Response to Uncertain Inflation Persistence
This FEDS Note considers the implications of uncertainty regarding the persistence of inflation for the conduct of monetary policy.
Working Paper
Avoiding Nash Inflation : Bayesian and Robust Responses to Model Uncertainty
We examine learning, model misspecification, and robust policy responses to misspecification in a quasi-real-time environment. The laboratory for the analysis is the Sargent (1999) explanation for the origins of inflation in the 1970s and the subsequent disinflation. Three robust policy rules are derived that differ according to the extent that misspecification is taken as a parametric phenomenon. These responses to drifting estimated parameters and apparent misspecification are compared to the certainty-equivalent case studied by Sargent. We find gains from utilizing robust approaches to ...
Working Paper
The Macroeconomic Implications of CBDC: A Review of the Literature
This paper provides an overview of the literature examining how the introduction of a CBDC would affect the banking sector, financial stability, and the implementation and transmission of monetary policy in a developed economy such as the United States. A CBDC has the potential to improve welfare by reducing financial frictions in deposit markets, by boosting financial inclusion, and by improving the transmission of monetary policy. However, a CBDC also entails noteworthy risks, including the possibility of bank disintermediation and associated contraction in bank credit, as well as potential ...
Working Paper
Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test
I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I first document that model uncertainty poses substantial challenges for policymakers in that key model properties differ in important ways across model vintages. Then I show that the parameterization of optimized simple policy rule--rules that are intended to be robust with respect to model ...