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Journal Article
Credit crunch or what? Australian banks during the 1986–93 credit cycle
There is ongoing debate about how the banking sector's financial condition affects the supply of credit to business and, ultimately, general macroeconomic conditions. The United States does not generate sufficient data to provide satisfactory answers to these questions, given the low frequency of credit cycles. However, the experiences of other developed countries may provide additional insight. This article investigates the 1986-93 credit cycle in Australia. A comparison of key differences and similarities between the U.S. and Australian banking systems allows a useful analysis of the ...
Journal Article
Inflation: how long has this been going on?
Journal Article
Lessons from the panic of 1907
Journal Article
Some unanswered questions about bank panics
Journal Article
Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions
During the recovery from the 2001 recession, the business press and economic analysts used payroll employment data released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as evidence of protracted weakness in the labor market. But using these monthly releases for this type of analysis can be premature and potentially misleading. The initial BLS releases can differ substantially from payroll employment data that are revised to incorporate information from less timely but more complete sources. ; This article highlights the historical revisions to the aggregate nonfarm payroll employment ...
Journal Article
Financial asset pricing theory: a review of recent developments
Journal Article
Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality
Constructing forecasts of the future path for economic series such as real gross domestic product growth, inflation, and unemployment forms a large part of applied economic analysis for business and government. Model-based forecasts are easier to replicate and validate by independent researchers than forecasts based on expert opinion alone. In addition, the forecaster can formally investigate the source of systematic errors in model forecasts, and a forecast model s performance can be established before it is used by a decision maker. ; The authors of this article describe a particular ...
Journal Article
Monetary policy and learning: Some implications for policy and research
In March 2003 the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta hosted a conference focusing on the relationship between monetary policy and learning. The conference papers and discussions are part of an emerging literature that introduces learning-about the economy or the model used by policymakers-into dynamic macroeconomic models. In some models, monetary policymakers learn about how the economy works while in others private agents learn about the model(s) the central bank uses to formulate monetary policy. ; This article outlines key issues, raised in a 1999 book by Thomas Sargent, about how to ...