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Working Paper
Efficient computation of stochastic coefficients models
Working Paper
Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period for extrapolation?
This paper demonstrates that forecast accuracy is not necessarily improved when fixed coefficient models are sequentially reestimated, and used for prediction, after updating the database with the latest observation(s). This is at variance with the now popular method (see Meese and Rogoff (1983, 1985)) of sequentially reestimating fixed coefficient models for prediction as new data "rolls" in. It is argued that although "rolling" may minimize the variance of predictions for some classes of estimators, "rolling" does not necessarily yield accurate predictions (i.e., predictions that are ...
Working Paper
Co-integration: is it a property of the real world?
Working Paper
Random coefficient models: theory and applications