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Journal Article
Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states
The authors consider forecasting real housing price growth for the individual states of the Federal Reserve's Eighth District. They first analyze the forecasting ability of a large number of potential predictors of state real housing price growth using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model framework. A number of variables, including the state housing price-to-income ratio, state unemployment rate, and national inflation rate, appear to provide information that is useful for forecasting real housing price growth in many Eighth District states. Given that it is typically difficult to ...